Daniel Cormier vs. Derrick Lewis UFC 230 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 11/3/18
Derrick Lewis vs. Daniel Cormier
UFC: Saturday, November 3, 2018 (Madison Square Garden)
The Line: Lewis +550 / Cormier -800 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Daniel Cormier and Derrick Lewis fight Saturday during UFC 230 at Madison Square Garden.
Daniel Cormier enters this fight with a 21-1 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Cormier has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a July win over Stipe Miocic. Cormier is averaging 3.88 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49.5 percent. Cormier is averaging 1.85 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Cormier is coming off a first round knockout in which he landed 31 strikes and earned performance of the night honors. Cormier has now finished six of his last eight victories and remains unbeaten when fighting anybody but Jon Jones. Cormier will now fight for the third time this year and has established himself as one of the toughest fighters in the sport, as few can wrestle with him on the canvas, and three of his last seven victories have come by the rear-naked choke. Cormier always feels like he has the advantage if he can execute a takedown due to his deep wrestling background, and he seems to get better the longer the fight drags out. Cormier is a well conditioned fighter who is but for the long haul, and even at 39 years old, he still has some pop in those hands that can end things standing up. Cormier is simply one of the more balanced and best MMA fighters to ever step into the octagon. This will be Cormier’s second career fight in New York.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 21-5 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has won nine of his last 10 fights and is coming off a October win over Alexander Volkov. Lewis is averaging 2.87 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51.3 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.52 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 23.8 percent. Lewis is coming off a performance of the night victory in which it looked like he was down for the count but ended up producing a third round knockout. Lewis landed 40 strikes compared to 133 strikes from his opponent, but he showed his will and fighting spirit to never give up. There's no surprises with Lewis, as he's primarily a striker with a boxing background and has produced knockouts in 16 of his last 18 victories. With a 79 inch reach and an aggressive mentality, Lewis is accurate with his shots and is going to land haymakers regardless of the result. Lewis doesn’t have the best takedown defense and does have conditioning issues, but he’s highly effective early in the fight and showed he’s capable of still ending a fight even when he’s absolutely exhausted. This will be Lewis’ second career fight in New York.
It’s fair to question how much Lewis has left in the tank considering he was dead tired after his last fight and is now fighting one of the best in the sport a month later. Lewis always has a shot to win based on his striking power, but he lacks a good takedown defense and doesn’t have an effective ground game to counter what Cormier wants to do. This is a lopsided fight in terms of style, and I don’t have a ton of confidence in Lewis based on his conditioning and lack of ground game. Cormier should be able to get whatever he wants in this bout and simply punish Lewis in the later rounds when he’s breathing heavy.
The price is insane here, so I’ll pick Cormier to win by submission to better the odds.