Jack Marshman vs. Kevin Holland - 3/21/20 UFC Fight Night 171 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
Kevin Holland vs. Jack Marshman
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:30 PM (The O2 Arena)
Jack Marshman +284 / Kevin Holland -326
Jack Marshman and Kevin Holland fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 171 at The O2 Arena.
Jack Marshman enters this fight with a 23-9 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout. Marshman has lost four of his last six fights and is coming off a July loss to Edmen Shahbazyan. Marshman is averaging 2.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Marshman is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Marshman is coming off a first round submission loss at UFC 239 and has now been finished in five of his last six losses. Many could consider this a must-win fight for Marshman, as he’s won just two fights in the last three and a half years and doesn’t look great in the losing efforts. Marshman is now 3-4 under the UFC banner and has lost a lot of that hype he entered with as CWFC Middleweight Champion. Marshman has a brawler feel to his game, as he spends a lot of his fights standing in the middle of the octagon and willing to trade strikes. Marshman has power in his hands and leans into his shots, but he takes a lot of unnecessary punishment and it’s not a coincidence he’s been finished in seven of his last nine losses. Marshman can be exciting with his style, but he can certainly clean things up defensively to improve his chances of snapping out of this losing stretch. This will be Marshman’s 16th career fight in England.
Kevin Holland enters this fight with a 16-5 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout. Holland has won seven of his last nine fights and is coming off an October loss to Brendan Allen. Holland is averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 63 percent. Holland is averaging 2.04 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Holland watched his three-fight winning streak get snapped at UFC on ESPN 6, and he now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in his career. Holland is a lengthy, athletic fighter with an 81-inch reach and impressive standup ability. Holland is light on his feet, constantly moving to keep his opponent on his toes and has polished boxing skills with quick hands, good footwork and enough power to end things with one clean shot. Holland also closes the distance well to land that big shot, and he’s gotten a lot more comfortable on the canvas over the years. Because of his length, Holland can really make life difficult for his opponent once on the ground. This will be Holland’s first career fight in England.
Marshman is a tough fighter who is willing to trade shots and has enough explosiveness in his hands that makes him a live dog when he gets to fight his style. The problem is Marshman isn’t great defensively and gives his opponents way too many openings to do damage, and it’s not a sustainable style for success on this level. Holland is not only the more polished striker, but he’d also have the edge on the ground and has a massive reach and size advantage in this fight. Basically, Marshman will have to be willing to eat some shots to close the distance, and that’s not a winning strategy in this bout. Holland should cruise in this fight, and I’d take him by finish to chip down an expensive ML price.