Philipe Lins vs. Andrei Arlovski - 5/13/20 UFC on ESPN 9 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Andrei Arlovski at Philipe Lins
Wednesday, May 13, 2020 at 10:00 PM (VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena)
The Line: Philipe Lins -150 / Andrei Arlovski +130 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
Andrei Arlovski and Philipe Lins fight Wednesday during UFC on ESPN 9 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.
Andrei Arlovski enters this fight with a 28-19 record and has won 61 percent of his fights by knockout. Arlovski has lost four of his last five fights and is coming off a November loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Arlovski is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Arlovski is averaging 0.52 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Arlovski is coming off a rough first round knockout loss at UFC 244 and has now been knocked out in 11 of his 19 career losses. Arlovski is in need of a feel good victory, as he has just one victory since UFC 225, which was nearly two years ago. When in good form, Arlovski is a terrific striker who lands extremely powerful punches and has produced 17 career knockouts. Arlovski will always have a chance given his power shots, but the fact he’s now 41 years old and has developed the reputation of having a weak chin is concerning. This will be Arlovski’s third career fight in Florida.
Philipe Lins enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout. Lins has won each of his last four fights and is coming off a December win (2018) over Josh Copeland. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Lins in the octagon, but he champed the PFL Heavyweight Tournament and walked away with a million dollar prize. Lins, who is a 34-year-old Brazilian, will now make his UFC debut with this bout. Lins is an explosive striker who has a good jab and mixes in strong leg kicks, and he has eight career knockouts. Lins is also a black belt in BJJ and is good at fighting from his back once on the canvas. Lins is also a solid defender and hasn’t taken a ton of damage throughout his career, so he has a fighting chance entering this division. Lins has a chance to hit the ground running if he ca build on his PFL momentum. This will be Lins’ first career fight in Florida.
Arlovski can never be counted out given his experience and the fact he’s a former UFC champion. However, it’s not a secret that Arlovski is way past his prime, has a questionable chin and hasn’t had many positive results as of late. Lins is the younger, quicker and probably the more balanced fighter between the two. This should be a fight Lins wins and uses as a starting point to make a run at the rankings.
Lins and the cheap price is a strong, strong bet for this card.