Cody Garbrandt vs. Raphael Assuncao - 6/6/20 UFC 250 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Raphael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt
Saturday, June 6, 2020 at 11:30 PM (UFC APEX)
The Line: Cody Garbrandt -139 / Raphael Assuncao +119 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Raphael Assuncao and Cody Garbrandt fight Saturday during UFC 250 at the UFC APEX. Click Here To Bet This UFC Fight
Raphael Assuncao enters this fight with a 27-7 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by decision. Assuncao has won seven of his last 10 fights and is coming off an August loss against Cory Sandhagen. Assuncao is averaging 3.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Assuncao is averaging 1.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Assuncao is coming off a competitive fight at UFC 241, but he was on the losing side and now hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time in his career. At almost 38 years old, Assuncao can’t afford a losing streak if he hopes to keep getting these big fights on main cards. Assuncao is a quality defensive fighter who has only been finished three times in his career and is averaging a little over 13 minutes per fight. Assuncao lands majority of his strikes standing up and has shown he has one-punch knockout power on his feet. Overall, Assuncao is a grinder who is highly confident in his grappling attack with a background in Muay Thai and BJJ, and he has an impressive gas tank that’s allowed him to win 13 of his 17 career decisions. Assuncao is often a safe fighter who isn’t going to do anything wild to put himself in danger of losing the fight. This will be Assuncao’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.
Cody Garbrandt enters this fight with a 11-3 record and has won 82 percent of his fights by knockout. Garbrandt has split his last six fights and is coming off a March (2019) loss to Pedro Munhoz. Garbrandt is averaging 3.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Garbrandt is averaging 0.94 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Garbrandt is riding a three-fight losing streak, and we’ve seen him get knocked out in all three losses. Garbrandt got fight of the night honors at UFC 235, but we’re talking about a fighter who hasn’t had his hand raised since 2016 at UFC 207. Garbrandt is primarily a striker who comes from a boxing background and does his best work by far standing up. Garbrandt has some of the best power in the bantamweight division and knows how to finish a fight when he feels the tables turning. Garbrandt also comes from a wrestling background, and he’s an extremely well conditioned fighter who has won both his career decisions. At almost 29 years old, Garbrandt still has time to turn things around, but it must start here before this losing streak gets completely out of hand. This will be Garbrandt’s seventh career fight in Las Vegas.
Assuncao is worth the look with the plus money given that No Love isn’t in the best of form, and he’d have a reach advantage that’s key standing up. However, Garbrandt is the younger fighter with more pop in his hands and has the wrestling background to counter Assuncao if this fight goes to the canvas. Garbrandt has also had over a year off to make adjustments, and he’s got to be the hungriest fighter on the card without a victory in nearly four years. We know what Garbrandt is capable of when he puts things together and there’s no better time than now to get in the win column.
I’ll side with Garbrandt to snap the losing skid.