Jake Collier vs. Tom Aspinall - 7/25/20 UFC on ESPN 14 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Jake Collier vs. Tom Aspinall - 7/25/20 UFC on ESPN 14 Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier

Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 10:00 PM (Flash Forum)

The Line: Jake Collier +185 / Tom Aspinall -220 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Tom Aspinall and Jake Collier fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN 14 at the Flash Forum.

Tom Aspinall enters this fight with a 7-2 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by knockout. Aspinall has won four of his last five fights and is coming off a September win over Michael Ben Hamouda. Aspinall is riding a solid three-fight winning streak and all there victories have been decided by knockout. Aspinall comes over from Cage Warriors and will make his UFC debut with this bout. Aspinall comes over from a boxing background and has great knockout power in either hand. Aspinall does a good job of keeping his hands up in his stance, and he usually is the one walking down his opponent. Aspinall hasn’t shown a lot of ground work, but he does have a good ground and pound and will throw in a few leg kicks as well. Aspinall produced submission victories in his first two pro fights and one of those was a heel hook over five years ago. This will be Aspinall’s first career fight in Abu Dhabi.

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Jake Collier enters this fight with a 11-4 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by knockout. Collier has split his last six fights and is coming off a November (2017) win over Marcel Fortuna. Collier is averaging 4.15 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Collier is averaging 0.72 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 23 percent. Collier last fought at UFC Fight Night 120 when he landed 124 total strikes and was the aggressor from start to finish. Collier was then forced to pull out of a fight due to injury and then tested positive for higenamine which led to a suspension. Collier is now approaching 32 years old and it’s going to be interesting to see his form after being out of the octagon for nearly three years. Collier has some power behind his shots and has produced five career knockouts, but he also has solid BJJ and is good at staying busy in the clinch. Collier also has underrated cardio that’s helped him win three of his four career decisions. Collier looks to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2013-14. This will be Collier’s first career fight in Abu Dhabi.

We’re going to learn a lot about Aspinall in this fight because his resume isn’t exactly great fighting over in England and taking on a lot of inexperienced fighters. From his highlights, Aspinall has the tools to be a factor in this division and is still young enough to make a name for himself. Collier wasn’t all that special when he was fighting regularly, and now he’s been out of the octagon for three years. There’s no way to back Collier with any confidence. 

Aspinall wins his UFC debut.

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Randy’s Pick Tom Aspinall -220

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.