Bobby Green vs. Lando Vannata - 8/1/20 UFC Fight Night 173 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green
Saturday, August 1, 2020 at 10:00 PM (UFC APEX)
The Line: Bobby Green +135 / Lando Vannata -155 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Lando Vannata and Bobby Green fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 173 at the UFC APEX.
Lando Vannata enters this fight with a 11-4-2 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by submission. Vannata has split his last 12 fights and is coming off a February win over Yancy Medeiros. Vannata is averaging 4.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Vannata is averaging 1.15 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Vannata got a much needed decision victory at UFC Fight Night 167 where he landed 100 total strikes and was much more accurate with his significant shots. Vannata now looks to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2015-16. Vannata has seen six of his last seven fights go the distance and he’s been on the wrong side of some tough bouts. Vannata has a wrestling background and is a brown belt in BJJ, and he’s most effective in the clinch where he can muck things up and win ugly. Vannata has some finish ability and has produced a couple of impressive knockouts, but he’s a points fighter for the most part and grinds fights out. This will be Vannata’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.
Bobby Green enters this fight with a 25-10-1 record and has won 36 percent of his fights by submission. Green has lost six of his last eight fights and is coming off a June win over Clay Guida. Green is averaging 5.01 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Green is averaging 1.19 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31 percent. Green is coming off a dominating performance at UFC on ESPN 11 where he landed 90 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Green is right back in the octagon a month later and looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2013-14. Green comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he has a blue belt in BJJ. Green seems more polished as a striker, as he’s heavy handed, has good ground and pound and closes the distance well standing up. Green also has nine career submission victories, as he has decent scrambling skills and three of those victories have come via the guillotine choke. The tools are there for Green to be a threat and maybe getting a much needed victory gets his career back on track. This will be Green’s sixth career fight in Las Vegas.
This line makes no sense to me, as I’m just not all that high on Vannata and am certainly not laying juice with him in his current form. Green was fairly dominant in his last fight and his athleticism should benefit greatly in a smaller cage. Vannata lacks the finish ability and is in constant close fights. Green gives us value in a fight that he probably should win. I just don’t see Vannata as a special fighter who should be in the favorite role.
Give me Green in what some would consider an upset.