Alexey Oleynik vs. Derrick Lewis - 8/8/20 UFC Fight Night 174 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleynik
Saturday, August 8, 2020 at 10:00 PM (UFC APEX)
The Line: Alexey Oleynik +200 / Derrick Lewis -235 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Derrick Lewis and Alexey Oleynik fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 174 at the UFC APEX.
Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 23-7 record and has won 78 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has won seven of his last 10 fights and is coming off a February win over Ilir Latifi. Lewis is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Lewis is coming off a decision win at UFC 247 despite his opponent landing far more total strikes and producing three takedowns. Lewis has now seen three of his last four wins go the distance, and he’s won four of his six career decisions overall. There’s no surprises with Lewis when he steps into the octagon, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 16 of his last 20 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that flips the fight upside down and eventually ends things. Lewis doesn’t have much of a ground game, and he has a reputation for tiring quickly, so he’s going to live and die with his standup striking and hopes to end things in the early rounds. Lewis has improved his takedown defense as of late and his movement has gotten better, but his power striking is where he makes his money. Lewis is a boxer and will have the edge with most fighters on the feet. This will be Lewis’ sixth career fight in Las Vegas.
Alexey Oleynik enters this fight with a 59-13-1 record and has won 78 percent of his fights by submission. Oleynik has won six of his last nine fights and is coming off a May win over Fabrício Werdum. Oleynik is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Oleynik is averaging 2.41 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Oleynik is coming off a split decision win at UFC 249 where he landed far more total strikes but was taken down three times. It was the first time Oleynik had a decision fight in four years, and he now looks for three straight wins for the first time since 2013-14. Oleynik uses his striking to close the distance and while sloppy at times, he throws some nice overhand punches and has some pop in those hands if they land cleanly. Oleynik is most effective on the canvas where his deep background in combat sambo and submission wrestling allows him to find unique ways to finish fights. With 11 career victories via the Ezekiel choke (first fighter in UFC history to submit a fight this way), Oleynik is capable of finishing a fight in any position and it puts his opponent at risk whenever the fight goes to the canvas. This will be Oleynik’s third career fight in Las Vegas.
There’s extreme value with Oleynik and the plus money considering he has a massive edge if this fight goes to the canvas. Lewis isn’t a wrestler, has a reputation for tiring quickly and Oleynik is a nightmare on the ground. The issue we have here is that Lewis has improved his takedown defense over his career and has become smarter about staying on his feet. Oleynik is also somebody who eats shots standing up and has been knocked out seven times in 13 career losses. Lewis isn’t somebody you want to get tagged by.
I like Lewis to win the fight, and I’ll take him by KO to lower the ML price.