Virna Jandiroba vs. Felice Herrig - 8/15/20 UFC 252 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
Felice Herrig vs. Virna Jandiroba
Saturday, August 15, 2020 at 10:00 PM (UFC APEX)
The Line: Virna Jandiroba -310 / Felice Herrig +260 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Felice Herrig and Virna Jandiroba fight Saturday during UFC 252 at the UFC APEX.
Felice Herrig enters this fight with a 14-8 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by decision. Herrig has won five of her last eight fights and is coming off an October (2018) loss to Michelle Waterson. Herrig is averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Herrig is averaging 1.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 30 percent. Herrig is coming off a decision loss at UFC 229 where she landed 70 total strikes and produced one takedown. It’s ben almost two years since we’ve last seen Herrig in the octagon, as she’s been recovering from ACL surgery. Herrig hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time in her career. Herrig comes from a Muay Thai and kickboxing background, and she’s a purple belt in BJJ. Herrig has a 23-0 kickboxing record, and she has some solid boxing skills with impressive footwork and works a nice jab. Herrig also has a high takedown defense percentage and has never been finished in her career, as all eight of her losses have come in decision. This will be Herrig’s third career fight in Las Vegas.
Virna Jandiroba enters this fight with a 15-1 record and has won 80 percent of her fights by submission. Jandiroba has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a December win over Mallory Martin. Jandiroba is averaging 1.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Jandiroba is averaging 4.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Jandiroba is coming off a second round submission victory at UFC on ESPN 7 to get her first career UFC victory. Seven of Jandiroba’s last nine victories have come by submission, and seven of her 13 wins overall have been decided in the first round. Jandiroba is a black belt in BJJ, and there’s no surprises with her game, as she wants to get her opponent on the canvas and get the submission victory. Jandiroba has produced six takedowns in two UFC fights and seven of her 12 career submission wins have come via rear-naked choke. Not much of a striker, Jandiroba wants to close the distance, get her hands on her opponent and drag them into deep waters with a lot of time to work. This will be Jandiroba’s first career fight in Las Vegas.
This line has moved a ton and it’s clear the money is pouring in on Jandiroba. While Herrig is the more balanced fighter given her striking background, we haven’t seen her fight in two years and she’s coming off major surgery while turning 36 years old next month. Lots of question marks surrounding Herrig in this fight. We know what we’re getting out of Jandiroba, and she’s a nightmare once she gets the fight where she wants it.
I can only lean in the direction of Jandiroba, and I’ll back her to win by submission to soften the ridiculous ML price.