Kyle Nelson vs. Billy Quarantillo – 9/12/20 UFC Vegas 10 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson fight Saturday during UFC Vegas 10 at the UFC APEX.

Billy Quarantillo enters this fight with a 14-2 record and has won 36 percent of his fights by knockout. Quarantillo has won his last seven fights and is coming off a May win over Spike Carlyle. Quarantillo is averaging 7.43 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 79 percent. Quarantillo is averaging 1.34 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Quarantillo is coming off a decision victory at UFC on ESPN 9 where he landed 110 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Quarantillo is now 2-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost overall since a 2016 AFC bout against Michel Quinones. Quarantillo is a lengthy fighter with a 70-inch reach and does a good job of using his distance in his standup. Quarantillo has knockout power in his hands and has produced finishes overall in five of his last six victories. Quarantillo also has good offensive wrestling and has produced five career submission victories with two of those wins coming via the triangle choke. Quarantillo will be 32 years old at the end of the year, but he’s off to a solid start in the UFC. 

Kyle Nelson enters this fight with a 13-3 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by knockout. Nelson has won seven of his last nine fights and is coming off a September (2019) win over Marco Polo Reyes. Nelson is averaging 2.73 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Nelson is averaging 1.41 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 16 percent. Nelson got his first UFC victory at UFC Fight Night 159 where he produced a first round knockout and landed 12 significant strikes. Nelson has now produced knockouts in each of his last three victories and he’s 1-2 under the UFC banner. Nelson is a balanced fighter with knockout potential and is willing to trade standing up, but he’s also a polished grappler with terrific scrambling skills and almost alway gains a favorable position. Nine of Nelson’s 13 career victories have ended in finishes and his last two submission victories have come via rear naked choke. Nelson has a lot of raw tools to be a factor in this division if he can keep stringing wins together. This will be Nelson’s first career fight in Las Vegas.

Quarantillo has been a striking machine in his few UFC fights and that’s probably bad news for Nelson who has shown the ability to get hit a bunch. However, this price is a bit disrespectful to Nelson, who has great finish ability and possibly the wrestling edge in this bout. Nelson is somebody who should not be slept on and could truly win this fight if he gets his hands on Quarantillo and is able to get it to the ground.

Call me crazy, but I like Nelson and a chance to make two times my money.