Niko Price vs. Donald Cerrone – 9/19/20 UFC Vegas 11 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Donald Cerrone and Niko Price fight Saturday during UFC Vegas 11 at the UFC APEX.

Donald Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-15-1 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Cerrone has lost eight of his last 12 fights and is coming off a May loss to Anthony Pettis. Cerrone is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Cerrone is averaging 1.23 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Cerrone is coming off a decision loss at UFC 249 where he was far less accurate with his significant strikes and failed six of his eight takedown attempts. Cerrone has now lost four straight fights and now at 37 years old, it’s fair to question if we’re starting to see the end of Cowboy. Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A total of 27 of Cerrone’s 36 victories have come by some sort of stoppage and he’s had just one decision victory since UFC 187. A polished wrestler who almost always has the edge on the canvas, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. A tough fighter who never backs down from the competition, Cerrone’s work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why he’s one of the more popular fighters in the sport. Cerrone just needs a win to prove there’s still something left in the tank, as this losing stretch is getting worrisome. This will be Cerrone’s 13th career fight in Las Vegas.

Niko Price enters this fight with a 14-4 record and has won 69 percent of his fights by knockout. Price has split his last eight fights and is coming off an May loss to Vicente Luque. Price is averaging 4.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Price is averaging 1.08 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 23 percent. Price is coming off a third round knockout loss at UFC 249, a fight that was highly competitive up to that point. Price, who has been hit or miss these last few years, has yet to lose back-to-back fights in his career. Price is a bitemn belt in BJJ, and he’s effective with his strikes standing up, in the clinch and on the ground. Price isn’t the most effective striker in terms of accuracy, but he’s got some pop when he does land and has this wild, aggressive style that can really overwhelm his opponent. Price isn’t the most technically sound or most disciplined fighter in the division, but his career has shown he only needs to land that one shot and he’s going to have his chances due to his aggressiveness. Price has 10 career knockout victories and only one of hi 19 fights overall have gone to a decision. This will be Price’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

I love Cerrone as much as the next guy, but there’s no doubt he’s looked sluggish at times and this losing streak is concerning. It also doesn’t help that Cerrone continues to take on fight after fight and not taking a proper time to fully recover and regroup a bit. Price is the longer fighter here, and he’s young, aggressive and a ball of energy in that octagon. If Price pushes the pace and lands a few power shots, this fight my be over before it really starts. I really tried to take Cerrone and the plus money, but I can’t go with my heart when money is on the line.

Give me Price and the reasonable price.