UFC on ESPN 16: Jessin Ayari vs. Luigi Vendramini – UFC Picks, Predictions

Luigi Vendramini and Jessin Ayari fight Saturday night during UFC on ESPN 16 at the Flash Forum.

Luigi Vendramini enters this fight with a 8-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Vendramini has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a September (2018) loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Vendramini is averaging 0.63 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 23 percent. Vendramini is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Vendramini is coming off his first career loss, which was his UFC debut, and it was a second round knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 137. It’s going to be interesting to see how Vendramini responds from his first loss and it’s even more interesting given that he hasn’t fought in over two years. Vendramini has been dealing with a knee injury, which is why he’s been out of the octagon for so long. Vendramini is a quick starter who has produced finishes in all eight of his victories and six of those wins have come in the first round. Vendramini has knockout power and usually thitems one shot at a time, but he’s also no stranger to the canvas and has four submission victories. Two of Vendramini’s four submission victories have come by the anaconda choke. Vendramini is usually at his best on the canvas and his grappling is the best part of his game up to this point. 

Jessin Ayari enters this fight with a 16-5 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission. Ayari has split last four fights and is coming off an October (2018) loss to Stevie Ray. Ayari is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Ayari is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Ayari lost his lightweight debut at UFC Fight Night 138 in a decision where he landed 64 total strikes and 45 percent of his significant strikes. Ayari has lost his last two fights and hasn’t won a bout since his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 93. It’s been two years since we’ve seen Ayari in the octagon, as he’s also been dealing with a knee injury. Ayari is a 28-year-old German who has a background in sambo, kickboxing and BJJ. Ayari is a bit awkward on his feet, but he has some power in his hands and will thitem some violent combinations at times. Ayari has eight career submission victories and he started his career with four straight submissions. 

This is not an easy fight to get a good read on, as both of these fighters have serious question marks coming off knee injuries and we haven’t seen either in two years. I usually avoid fighters who have such long layoffs, as the rust is real and you simply don’t know what to expect. With that said, Vendramini is the more aggressive fighter and has top notch finish ability. In a battle where I don’t have a ton of confidence in either fighter, I want the guy who can end things quickly in both knockouts and submissions.

Give me Vendramini and the cheaper price.