UFC Vegas 13: Yan Xiaonan vs. Claudia Gadelha Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Claudia Gadelha and Yan Xiaonan fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 13 at the UFC APEX.

Claudia Gadelha enters this fight with a 18-4 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by decision. Gadelha has won five of her last seven fights and is coming off a May win over Angela Hill. Gadelha is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Gadelha is averaging 3.13 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Gadelha is coming off a split decision win at UFC on ESPN 8 where she landed 92 total strikes, 40 percent of her significant strikes and produced a takedown. Gadelha has now seen each of her last five fights go the distance, and she looks for three straight wins for the first time since 2013-14. Gadelha is a second degree black belt in BJJ and has a background in Muay Thai, so she can hold her own standing up or on the ground. At the UFC level, Gadelha has been a takedown machine and has shown an impressive gas tank that’s allowed her to win nine of her 13 career decisions. Gadelha can usually get the fight where she wants it and five of her seven submission wins have come by the armbar. Gadelha has never been finished in her career. This will be Gadelha’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Yan Xiaonan enters this fight with a 12-1 record and has won 58 percent of her fights by decision. Xiaonan has won her last five fights and is coming off a February win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Xiaonan is averaging 6.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Xiaonan is averaging 1.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 75 percent. Xiaonan is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 168 where she landed 157 total strikes, 52 percent of her significant strikes and produced five takedowns. Xiaonan is 5-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost a fight since her third pro bout more than a decade ago. Xiaonan has a background in BJJ and Sanda, so she’s a very comfortable standup striker who has five career knockouts and will mix in some leg kicks with her power punches. Xiaonan has improved her takedown ability over the years, has shown above-average takedown defense and has never won a fight by submission. Xiaonan is hard to hit on the feet and usually controls things in the clinch where she’s become much more confident with taking a fight to the canvas. This will be Xiaonan’s second career fight in the United States.

This should be an interesting fight between two fighters with similar styles, but Xiaonan is the more technical striker on the feet who is sharper with her hands and has a power edge. Xiaonan has also improved her BJJ over the years to where you’re confident she can hang with Gadelha in those deep waters. And if we’re being honest, you can make a strong case for Gadelha losing her last bout, and Xiaonan does a lot of things cleaner than Hill.

I’ll lay the cheap price with Xiaonan.