UFC Vegas 14: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Paul Felder Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Paul Felder and Rafael dos Anjos fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 14 at the UFC APEX.

Paul Felder enters this fight with a 17-5 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Felder has won seven his last 10 fights and is coming off a February loss to Dan Hooker. Felder is averaging 3.67 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Felder is averaging 0.25 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Felder is coming off a split decision loss at UFC Fight Night 168 where he landed 119 total strikes and 47 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned fight of the night honors, and three of Felder’s last four fights have ended in split decisions. Felder hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in his career, and he’s taking this fight on just five days notice, replacing Islam Makhachev. Felder is a striker at heart who is creative, mixes in leg kicks well and has some power in his hands. Felder is a pressure fighter who likes to dictate pace and keep his opponent uncomfortable with his high work rate. Whether he’s standing up, in the clinch or executing ground and pound, Felder usually outworks his opponent and has been finished just once in five career losses. Felder also has above-average takedown defense, forcing his opponent to fight his fight. A tough creative fighter, Felder can bang with just about anybody within this division and is going to put on a show win, lose or draw. This will be Felder’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

Rafael dos Anjos enters this fight with a 29-13 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by decision. dos Anjos has lost four of his last five fights and is coming off a January loss to Michael Chiesa. dos Anjos is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. dos Anjos is averaging 1.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. dos Anjos is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Night 166 where he landed 23 total strikes and 38 percent of his significant strikes. dos Anjos hasn’t won a fight since he headlined UFC Fight Night 152, and he hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time in his career. dos Anjos is one of the more polished strikers within the division, as he mixes in his punches and kicks well, and he packs a serious ground and pound once on the canvas. With a polished boxing approach and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, dos Anjos can hold his own wherever the fight goes, but he’s much more effective on his feet. dos Anjos does have a pressure style to his game, but he was a bit hesitant in his last fight. dos Anjos has 10 career submission victories and has never been submitted himself. This will be dos Anjos’ fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

Felder is going to be the big underdog here for obvious reasons, as he’s taking this fight with less than a week to prepare. Felder was supposed to be calling these fights, and now he’s in the main event. Crazy. With that said, dos Anjos hasn’t looked great in his last several fights, and he’s giving up some size to Felder. Say what you want about Felder’s skill level, he’s a fighters fighter who goes into the octagon to brawl and his pressure, power striking style gives him a shot no matter the circumstances. Felder can push the pace of this fight and if he lands something heavy, dos Anjos is going to have a tough time countering.

While it seems impossible on the surface, Felder and the plus money is intriguing.