UFC 256: Charles Oliveira vs. Tony Ferguson Picks, Odds, and Predictions
2020-12-12 23:30:00 EDT
Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira fight Saturday in UFC 256 at the UFC APEX.
Tony Ferguson enters this fight with a 25-4 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Ferguson has won 12 of his last 13 fights and is coming off a May loss to Justin Gaethje. Ferguson is averaging 5.80 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Ferguson is averaging 0.49 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Ferguson saw his winning streak come to an end at UFC 249 where he ate 143 total strikes and was getting roughed up in the middle rounds. The bout earned fight of the night honors, and Ferguson now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Ferguson is simply a savage in the octagon with a high work rate and ridiculous cardio that allows him to keep pushing with the same pace in each round. Ferguson has a reputation for beating up fighters and leaving them in a bloody mess. While his striking is elite level, Ferguson is also tough to takedown and he has a deep background in wrestling and is a black belt in BJJ that allows him to hold his own on the canvas if needed. Ferguson was a champion high school and college wrestler, and he’s very comfortable on his back where he’s no stranger to powerful strikes and can change position very quickly. This will be Ferguson’s eighth career fight in Las Vegas.
Charles Oliveira enters this fight with a 29-8 record and is winning 66 percent of his fights by submission. Oliveira has won seven straight fights and is coming off a March win over Kevin Lee. Oliveira is averaging 3.27 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.61 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Oliveira is also coming off a third round submission at UFC Fight Night 170 that earned performance of the night. Oliveira has produced finishes in each of his last 10 wins, and he hasn’t faced a decision in six years. Oliveira is one of the better grapplers in the sport who has a high takedown percentage and an impressive submission game to where most don’t want to fight him on the canvas. Oliveira has 19 career submission victories to his name and seven of those wins came by rear-naked choke. Oliveira’s 14 submissions and his 94.1 percent finish rate are both UFC records. While Oliveira is known for his scrappy ground game, he’s also proven he can hold his own on his feet, as he moves well, mixes in leg kicks and gets in and out with his combinations. Oliveira has quickly become a balanced fighter who finishes fights on his terms and is almost always the most exciting bout on the card. This will be Oliveira’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.
Oliveira is on such a roll and his ground game is so elite that he’s always worth a look in the underdog role, as we hit in his last fight against Lee. The issue here is Ferguson has the high level BJJ and the takedown defense that’s not going to make things easy for his opponent. Ferguson also has a clear edge in standup striking and could end things rather quickly if he finds his rhythm. While he got beat up his last time out and he’s approaching 37 years old, Ferguson was the hottest fighter on the planet earlier this year and deserving of a title shot. Ferguson is the more balanced fighter here and can’t afford a loss if he wants to fight for a belt any time soon.
Give me Ferguson and the reasonable price.
