Jennifer Maia vs. Joanne Calderwood – 8/1/20 UFC Fight Night 173 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 173 at the UFC APEX.

Joanne Calderwood enters this fight with a 14-4 record and has won 57 percent of her fights by decision. Calderwood has split her last six fights and is coming off a September win over Andrea Lee. Calderwood is averaging 6.19 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Calderwood is averaging 1.85 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Calderwood is coming off a tight split decision win at UFC 242 where she landed far more strikes than her opponent and produced a couple of takedowns. Calderwood has now won eight of her 10 career decisions. Calderwood has a deep background in Muay Thai and kickboxing, and she’s a blue belt in BJJ. Calderwood is at her best on her feet where she can unleash powerful leg kicks and control the distance in the octagon. Calderwood is also a proven grappler with a decent takedown defense, and she has an impressive gas tank that’s allowed her to be effective for all three rounds. This will be Calderwood’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

Jennifer Maia enters this fight with a 17-6-1 record and has won 53 percent of her fights by decision. Maia has won six of her last eight fights and is coming off a November loss to Katlyn Chookagian. Maia is averaging 4.05 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Maia is averaging 0.25 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Maia is coming off a rough loss at UFC 244 where her opponent controlled all three rounds and was far more efficient with her strikes. Maia now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in her career. Maia comes from a boxing background that includes three pro fights, and she’s mixed some BJJ and Muay Tahi to her game as well. Maia wants a fight on her feet where she can let her hands go, and she’s usually the aggressor in her bouts. Maia has seen each of her last eight fights end in decisions, and while she’s at her best standing up, she does have four career submission victories. This will be Maia’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

Calderwood is the more proven fighter at this stage and is the more balanced fighter as well. Calderwood has more in her attack on her feet with her kickboxing background, and her BJJ is slightly better than Maia as well. Maia is more of a points fighter and while she has a boxing background, she doesn’t have overwhelming power and has seen her last eight fights go to the judges. 

I have a hard time seeing either of these fighters finish the other, so I’ll side with Calderwood in a decision victory.