Ramazan Emeev and David Zawada are fighting at UFC Fight Island 7 on Saturday, January 16, 2021 on ESPN+.

In this welterweight (170lb) bout, we have Ramazan Emeev vs. David Zawada. Emeev is entering this fight as a -260 favorite and has a professional MMA record of 19-4-0. His current record in the UFC is 4-1-0. Emeev is a Combat Sambo World Champion who fights out of Dagestan, Russia. He won his last bout against Niklas Stolze in July 2019. Emeev has 3 wins by KO/TKO (16%), 7 submissions (37%), and 9 decisions (47%). Emeev has proven he has the ability to beat top level talent such as Niklas Stolze, Stefan Sekulic, Anatoly Tokov and Alberto Mina, however, I lost a bit of stock in him when he lost to Anthony Rocco Martin. Martin is a great fighter and has a record of 16-5-0, but based on Emeev’s past victories, he should have dominated Martin.

Zawada is entering this fight as a +200 underdog and his professional MMA record is 17-5-0. His current record in the UFC is 1-2-0. In Zawada’s last bout, he submitted Abubakar Nurmagomedov via a Triangle Choke and he received the performance of the night bonus. One of the many strengths of Zawada is his ability to fight off his back while in guard, but against a fighter like Emeev, Zawada may want to avoid this. Zawada has 11 wins via KO/TKO (65%), 4 submissions (24%), and 2 decisions (12%). I do not see Zawada knocking out Emeev. The only path to victory for Zawada is if he submits Emeev, which is unlikely.

Emeev should be able to dominate Zawada during this bout. Emeev’s combination of wrestling, grappling, strength, and stamina, will make this a difficult fight for Zawada. I really like Zawada’s activity when he is in guard and he poses a threat off his back, but when you are fighting a well-rounded fighter like Emeev, it’s difficult to create distance to land a submission. Zawada has submitted well-rounded fighters, but I don’t predict that happening against Emeev. Emeev is back and will dominate Zawada throughout this entire fight. 

There is no value betting on Emeev to win this fight as a -260 favorite. The value is in a prop bet.

I pick Emeev to win the fight, but my prop bet prediction is Emeev by Decision or Technical Decision +100.