UFC 258: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Maycee Barber and Alexa Grasso fight Saturday in UFC 258 at the UFC Apex.

Maycee Barber enters this fight with a 8-1 record and has won 63 percent of her fights by knockout. Barber has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a January loss to Roxanne Modafferi. Barber is averaging 6.02 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Barber is averaging 0.95 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 30 percent. Barber is coming off her first career loss at UFC 246 where she ate 112 total strikes and was taken down once. After being on such a roll since turning pro in June of 2017, it’s going to be interesting to see how Barber responds from her first defeat. Barber is a young fighter at 22 years old who comes from a karate background and does some of her best work on her feet. Each of Barber’s last five wins have come by knockout, and she puts a lot into her strikes, mixing in punches, elbows and knees well. Barber is a stocky, powerful fighter who swings with the intention of hurting her opponent. Barber also has some ground ability and her first pro fight was actually a first round armbar. This will be Barber’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

Alexa Grasso enters this fight with a 12-3 record and has won 67 percent of her fights by decision. Grasso has split her last six fights and is coming off an August win over Ji Yeon Kim. Grasso is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Grasso is averaging 0.32 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Grasso won her flyweight debut at UFC Vegas 8 where she landed 123 total strikes and produced a takedown. Grasso has now seen decisions in eight of her last nine fights, and she looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2016. Grasso is a standup striker at heart with a boxing background, terrific accuracy, technique and toughness. Grasso does a great job of standing in the middle of the octagon and landing strikes repeatedly often without allowing her opponent to counter. From a pure boxing standpoint, Grasso is up there as one of the best on the women’s side. The challenge for Grasso is to tap into the other areas of her game and improve in the clinch and on the canvas. A purple belt in BJJ, we’ve seen Grasso struggle in the past in the clinch, and her takedown defense could also improve. This will be Grasso’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

This should be a fun fight between two strong strikers who aren’t afraid to let their hands go. Those who have followed along over the years know I’m a big fan of Grasso and her boxing ability. However, Grasso isn’t finishing fighters the way she did earlier in her career and she allows opponents to hang around. Barber is a no-nonsense fighter who will hurt her opponent and keep coming forward. Barber can also switch stances on the feet, which throws another wrinkle into this bout. We’re getting some value with the plus money.

I’ll side with Barber in this fight.