UFC 258: Gilbert Burns vs. Kamaru Usman Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns fight Saturday in UFC 258 at the UFC Apex.

Kamaru Usman enters this fight with a 17-1 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by decision. Usman has won his last 16 fights and is coming off a July win over Jorge Masvidal. Usman is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Usman is averaging 3.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Usman is coming off a decision win at UFC 251 where he landed 263 total strikes and produced five takedowns. It wasn’t the most impressive performance from Usman, but he got the job done and didn’t allow Masvidal to get comfortable on his feet. Usman is a takedown machine with a deep wrestling background, a black belt in BJJ and a quality ground and pound attack. Usman is a really gifted athlete who usually gets the fight where he wants it and can spend majority of the fight from the top position where he simply wears on his opponents and controls the fight from start to finish. It may not always be sexy for the viewing audience, but there’s no denying Usman is in control when he’s in the octagon and has a winning formula. This will be Usman’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

Gilbert Burns enters this fight with a 19-3 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by submission. Burns has won each his last six fights and is coming off a May win over Tyron Woodley. Burns is averaging 3.15 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Burns is averaging 2.21 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Burns is coming off a dominating showing where he landed 156 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Burns has earned performance of the night honors in back-to-back fights and has now won each of his last four decisions. Burns has a decorated grappling background with plenty of experience in wrestling, and he’s a second degree black belt in BJJ. Burns is quick to find a submission hold once he gets the bout to the canvas and few have his grappling credentials, but he’s also decent on his feet with some pop in his hands and a come forward style. Burns doesn’t look as uncomfortable standing up as many guys with his background do, and he has six knockout wins on his resume. A balanced fighter, Burns has really turned some heads his last two fights. This will be Burns’ fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

When this fight was originally scheduled for UFC 251, I sided with Burns for the upset. Burns has the wrestling to hang with Usman on the canvas and he certainly has an edge on the feet with his knockout power. However, Burns has been out of the octagon for a while, had a bout with COVID-19 and every time you try to make a case against Usman, he proves why you probably shouldn’t. Again, it’s not always pretty, but Usman takes his strengths away from his opponent and knows what it takes to win. This is another fight were Usman can wear on his opponent and grind out a decision.

Give me Usman by points to turn juice into plus money.