Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Riddell
Saturday, March 20, 2021 at 10:00 PM (UFC APEX)
The Line: Brad Riddell +184 / Gregor Gillespie -230 -- Over/Under: Click to Get Latest Betting Odds
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Gregor Gillespie and Brad Riddell fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 22 at the UFC APEX.
Gregor Gillespie enters this fight with a 13-1 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by knockout. Gillespie has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a November (2019) loss against Kevin Lee. Gillespie is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49.4 percent. Gillespie is averaging 7.02 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47.9 percent. Gillespie hasn’t fought in about a year and a half, and he’s coming off his first career loss, which was a first round knockout at UFC 244. It’s going to be interesting to see how Gillespie responds to adversity for the first time in his career, especially with it being a nasty knockout. Gillespie is now 33 years old with a blue belt in BJJ and a background in wrestling. Gillespie has won gold in many wrestling events and four of his five submission victories have come by the arm-triangle choke. Gillespie executes his takedowns well and usually keeps his opponent on the ground, but he’s also a decent striker and has six career knockout victories. Gillespie has become a fairly balanced fighter over the years. This will be Gillespie’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.
Brad Riddell enters this fight with a 9-1 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by knockout. Riddell has won each of his last six fights and he’s coming off a September win over Alex da Silva Coelho. Riddell is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50.1 percent. Riddell is averaging one takedown with an accuracy percentage of 37.5 percent. Riddell is coming off a decision win at UFC 253 where he landed 86 total strikes and produced one takedown. Riddell is now 3-0 under the UFC banner and all three of those wins have come by decision. Riddell is a purple belt in BJJ and comes from a kickboxing background where he does some of his best work mixing in kicks to the body and landed seven leg kicks in his last bout. Riddell is a striker at heart and wants a fight on the feet, but he has been rather successful with his takedown attempts and has improved his ability on the ground. Riddell has five career knockout wins and he’s never lost a decision. This will be Riddell’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.
This is a lot of plus money to give a fighter in Riddell who finds ways to win and could more than hold his own in a standup battle here. However, the line is about right, as Riddell hasn’t been overly impressive in three UFC fights despite his success, and he’s at a decent disadvantage if this fight goes to the ground. Gillespie also knows how to finish fights at a higher clip and he should be looking for the finish if he gets Riddell on the ground.
Gillespie likely wins this fight, and I’ll take him by finish to soften the ML price.