UFC 260: Francis Ngannou vs Stipe Miocic Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou fight Saturday in UFC 260 at the UFC APEX.

Stipe Miocic enters this fight with a 20-3 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. Miocic has won eight of his last nine fights and is coming off an August win over Daniel Cormier. Miocic is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Miocic is averaging 1.92 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Miocic is coming off a decision win at UFC 252 where he he landed 171 total strikes and 61 percent of his significant strikes. Miocic has now won five of his six career decisions and will fight with a belt on the line for an eighth straight fight. Miocic has proven he’s a striking machine who lands volume punches with great accuracy and overwhelming power, and he’s now seen knockouts in seven of his last nine victories. Five of those knockouts have ended in the first round. Miocic is also a polished wrestler with a D1 background, but none of his fights have ended in submission. Miocic usually wastes no time throwing strikes and his head movement is a really underrated part of his standup as well. Miocic can hold his own on the ground when needed, but his stand up is what’s made him a star and one of the scariest fighters on the UFC roster overall. This will be Miocic’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

Francis Ngannou enters this fight with a 15-3 record and has won 73 percent of his fights by knockout. Ngannou has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a May win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Ngannou is averaging 2.23 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Ngannou is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Ngannou is coming off a first round knockout at UFC 249 where he rushed his opponent from the start and landed just six total strikes. Ngannou has now produced first round knockouts in each of his last six victories. Each of Ngannou’s last eight wins have taken place in the first round. Ngannou doesn’t need to land a violent shot to do the job given the overwhelming power in his hands. There’s no surprises with Ngannou, as the guy is one of the scariest standup strikers in the sport and wants a fight standing up where he can put his boxing background to work. Ngannou puts together his punches cleanly, throws accurate combinations and usually lands a strong overhand or a devastating uppercut that changes the whole fight. Ngannou is putting his opponent to sleep if he lands cleanly, it’s just that simple. Ngannou will also mix in some leg kicks here and there, but his bread and butter is all about the boxing and his ridiculous pop. The only hope is that Ngannou runs out of gas and that power fades and it doesn’t help that he’s lost all three career decisions. This will be Ngannou’s second career fight in Las Vegas.

These two fought at UFC 220, a little over three years ago, and Miocic won a decision where he landed 200 total strikes and produced six takedowns. Ngannou landed only 33 total strikes and 18 percent of his significant strikes. A real one-sided fight if we’re being honest. Given what happened in the first fight and the fact Miocic is the more balanced fighter in this spot with his wrestling background, you can make a case for him and the even money. With that said, Ngannou has been on a tear since that defeat and he’s far more disciplined than he was years ago. Ngannou does a better job of picking his spots, isn’t as wild when he throws and he appears to be in better shape.

I’m not betting against Ngannou.