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UFC Vegas 23: Kevin Holland vs Marvin Vettori Picks, Odds, and Predictions

UFC Vegas 23: Kevin Holland vs Marvin Vettori Picks, Odds, and Predictions
2021-04-10 17:00:00 EDT

Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 23 at the UFC APEX.

Marvin Vettori enters this fight with a 16-4-1 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by submission. Vettori has won his last four fights and is coming off a December win over Jack Hermansson. Vettori is averaging 4.78 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Vettori is averaging 1.33 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Vettori is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 16 where he landed 202 total strikes and 49 percent of his significant strikes. The victory earned fight of the night honors, Vettori’s second straight bonus. Vettori is a balanced fighter who could soon become a star given that he’s only 27 years old. Vettori is highly skilled on his feet where he throws violent combinations, but he’s also quite an athlete for his size and loves to throw knees out of nowhere, which we saw against Omari Akhmedov. Vettori is also highly effective in the clinch and has good scrambling skills that allow him to survive on the canvas. Three of Vettori’s last four submission victories have come via the guillotine choke. Three of Vettori’s four victories during this streak have been decisions. This will be Vettori’s sixth career fight in Las Vegas.

Kevin Holland enters this fight with a 21-6 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout. Holland has won eight of his last 10 fights and is coming off a March win over Derek Brunson. Holland is averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Holland is averaging 1.08 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Holland is coming off a decision loss at UFC Vegas 22 where he landed 190 strikes but was taken down six times. The loss snaps a five-fight winning streak, and Holland will now fight for the third time since last December. Holland is a lengthy, athletic fighter with an 81-inch reach and impressive standup ability. Holland is light on his feet, constantly moving and not giving his opponent an easy target and has polished boxing skills with quick hands, good footwork and enough power to end things with one clean shot. Holland has produced knockouts in three of his last four victories. A black belt in Kung Fu and BJJ, Holland closes the distance well to land that big shot, and he’s gotten a lot more comfortable on the canvas over the years. Because of his length, Holland can really make life difficult for his opponent once on the ground and he has six career submission victories. Four of Holland’s six career losses have come by decision. This will be Holland’s seventh career fight in Las Vegas.

There’s some value with Holland and the big plus money when you consider his boxing and knockout power, but he is on a massive short turnaround, replacing the injured Darren Till. Holland deserves respect for taking this fight, but we’ve seen what happens in the past to fighters who get bold and take bouts in ridiculously short notice. Vettori is on a roll right now, is a tricky southpaw on the feet and would have the edge on the ground if the bout went there. With that said, I’m predicting a finish here, so I’ll take the under 4.5 rounds.

These are two polished strikers and somebody is going to catch somebody with something to prevent this from going the distance.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Under 4.5 -161

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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