UFC Vegas 28: Walt Harris vs Marcin Tybura Picks, Odds, Predictions

Marcin Tybura vs Walt Harris
June 5, 2021 10:25 pm EDT
The Line: Walt Harris +145 / Marcin Tybura -165
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Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 28 at the UFC Apex.

Walt Harris enters this fight with a 13-9 record and has won 100 percent of his fights by knockout. Harris has split his last 10 fights and is coming off an October loss to Alexander Volkov. He is averaging 2.95 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Harris is averaging 0.30 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent.

Harris is coming off a second round knockout loss at UFC 254 where he ate 45 total strikes and landed just 16 total strikes of his own. He’s now been knocked out in his last two bouts and hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time in his career. There’s no secrets when it comes to Harris, as he’s an athletic, explosive fighter who relies on his striking ability and has won all 13 of his fights by knockout. Harris is a nightmare standing up and he does a lot of his work in the early rounds. However, if an opponent can survive the early onslaught from Harris, they have a really good chance of wearing him down and stealing the fight. Six of Harris’ nine career losses have made it out of the first round. This will be Harris’ fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

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Marcin Tybura enters this fight with a 21-6 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by knockout. Tybura has won four straight fights and is coming off a December win over Greg Hardy. He is averaging 3.70 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Tybura is averaging 1.62 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent.

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Tybura is coming off a knockout win at UFC Vegas 17 that earned performance of the night honors. In the victory, Tybura landed 60 total strikes and 50 percent of his significant strikes. He now looks for five straight wins for the first time since starting his career with a 12-0 record. Tybura is a 35-year-old Polish fighter with a black belt in BJJ and one of the more balanced fighters in the division. Tybura has the knockout power and is accurate with his shots, but he also has six career submission wins. Four of those submission wins have come by the rear-naked choke, and Tybura also had a triangle armbar in his third career fight. Tybura and his comfortability on the ground is why he’s now a decade in this sport and seems to be getting better as he gets older. This will be Tybura’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

It’s easy to see why the line is what it is, as Harris is in rough form and Tybura is on a roll. Tybura is also the more balanced fighter here and has put together some impressive wins during this streak. However, Harris does have solid takedown defense and the power edge on the feet. Also, Tybura is no stranger to getting knocked out and it wasn’t that long ago when he was stopped in three of his last four fights. We’ll need Harris to go to work early and land some power shots, but there’s still value with the plus money.

Give me Harris for the upset.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Walt Harris +145
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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