MMA

UFC 263: Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo Picks, Odds, Predictions

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno
June 12, 2021 10:30 pm EDT
The Line: Brandon Moreno +185 / Deiveson Figueiredo -220
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Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno fight Saturday in UFC 263 at the Gila River Arena. Figueiredo enters this fight with a 20-1-1 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by knockout. Moreno enters this fight with a 18-5-2 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by submission.

Figueiredo has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a December draw to Brandon Moreno. Figueiredo is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Figueiredo is averaging 1.57 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. 

He is coming off a draw at UFC 256 where he landed 147 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. He was deducted a point for a groin strike, which likely cost him a victory. Either way, the bout earned fight of the night honors.

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Figueiredo is a balanced fighter who has great takedown ability, can fight from his back and is quite slippery on the canvas with his scrambling skills. He has solid wrestling and has eight career submissions, with five of them coming via guillotine choke. Figueiredo is also skilled on the feet with knockout power and solid head movement that make it tough for an opponent to land cleanly. 

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Now 34 years old, Figueiredo has more than proven he’s one of the best and possibly most underrated fighter in the sport. This will be Figueiredo’s first career fight in Arizona.

Moreno has split his last eight fights and is coming off a December draw against Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno is averaging 3.41 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Moreno is averaging 2.01 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. 

He is coming off a draw at UFC 256 where he landed 139 total strikes and 53 percent of significant strikes. He also produced four takedowns. Moreno has seen draws in two of his last five fights.

Moreno is an energetic, tough Mexican fighter who won’t get outworked in the octagon. He is a black belt in BJJ, has 10 career submission wins and his scrambling ability is as good as it gets in this division. Moreno can reverse position quickly and does a good job of fighting the hands in his takedown defense. He has also improved his striking over the years and has shown he can trade on the feet if needed. 

Moreno has still never been finished in his career. This will be Moreno’s sixth career fight in Arizona.

I had Moreno and the big plus money in the first fight and there’s no reason for me to not side with that again. Figueiredo is probably the better fighter overall, but Moreno held his own with the strikes and had his success with the takedowns. Figueiredo probably gets the nod if a point wasn’t deducted, but the fight was super competitive. I wouldn’t expect anything different here. That puts value with the underdog in an expected back and forth contest.

Give me Moreno and the plus money.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Brandon Moreno +185
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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