Alexey Oleynik vs. Sergey Spivak
June 19, 2021 11:15 pm EDT
The Line: Aleksei Oleinik +195 / Sergey Spivak -230
(Get latest betting odds)
Alexey Oleynik and Sergey Spivak fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 29 at the UFC Apex. Oleynik enters this fight with a 59-15-1 record and has won 78 percent of his fights by submission. Spivak enters this fight with a 12-2 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission.
Oleynik has split his last 12 fights and is coming off a February loss to Chris Daukaus. He is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Oleynik is averaging 2.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent.
Oleynik is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Vegas 19 where he landed just six total strikes. The Boa Constrictor has been knocked out in his last two fights and his last five losses overall. That type of punishment can’t be good for Oleynik, who turns 44 years old next week.
Oleynik uses his striking to close the distance and while sloppy at times, he has nice overhands and some pop. Oleynik is most effective on the canvas where his deep background in combat sambo and submission wrestling. With 11 career victories via the Ezekiel choke (first fighter in UFC history to submit a fight this way), Oleynik is capable of finishing a fight in any position and it puts his opponent at risk whenever the fight goes to the canvas. This will be Oleynik’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.
Spivak has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Jared Vanderaa. He is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Spivak is averaging 3.70 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 63 percent.
Spivak is coming off a second round knockout at UFC Vegas 19 where he landed 107 total strikes. It was a dominant performance from Spivak, who is now 3-2 under the UFC banner.
Spivak is an aggressive fighter standing up, as he throws bombs and looks to close the distance. He gets in the clinch, throws heavy knees and he’s even better on the canvas. Spivak has a strong ground and pound and does have six career submission victories.
Polar Bear is a balanced heavyweight who has finished 11 of his 12 victories. At just 26 years old, Spivak has the ability to shoot up the rankings and make some serious noise in this division. This will be Spivak’s second career fight in Las Vegas.
Oleynik is a grizzly veteran who shouldn’t be overlooked just because of his rough skid. We’ve seen many older fighters who are claimed to be washed up, they cash big tickets. However, Oleynik and his questionable chin is an issue in this fight. Spivak is a savage in the octagon who throws everything hard is looking for a finish. I’m on the Spivak bandwagon and think he’s a fighter to watch closely over the next year or two.
Price isn’t cheap, but I like Spivak to get the job done here. I’ll predict a knockout as well to shave down the price.
