Matt Brown vs Dhiego Lima
June 19, 2021 9:10 pm EDT
The Line: Matt Brown +145 / Dhiego Lima -170
(Get latest betting odds)
Matt Brown and Dhiego Lima fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 29 at the UFC Apex. Brown enters this fight with a 22-18 record and has won 64 percent of his fights by knockout. Lima enters this fight with a 15-8 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by decision.
Brown has lost five of his last seven fights and is coming off a January loss to Carlos Condit. He is averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Brown is averaging 1.56 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent.
Brown is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Island 7 where he landed 37 total strikes and ate 157 strikes. Brown has now lost back-to-back fights and has lost seven of his last 10 fights overall.
At 40 years old and with these losses piling up, it’s fair to say we could be seeing the end of Brown rather quickly. The Immortal is a brown belt in both BJJ and Judo. Brown is an accurate striker with 14 knockouts on his resume and he knows his way around the canvas.
However, Brown has been submitted 10 times and has lost five of his seven career decisions. This will be Brown’s seventh career fight in Las Vegas.
Lima has split his last 14 fights and is coming off a February loss to Belal Muhammad. He is averaging 3.14 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Lima is averaging 1.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent.
Lima is coming off a decision loss at UFC 258 where he landed 70 total strikes and ate 136 strikes. The loss snapped a three-fight winning streak.
Lima is a brown belt in BJJ and has seen four of his last five fights end in decision. He’s not the most accurate striker in the world, but he has some knockout pop and has four submission wins as well. Lima also has a great gas tank that’s helped him win seven of his 10 decisions.
Lima does have a questionable chin and has been knocked out in four of his eight losses. This will be Lima’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.
I’m not running to the window to bet this fight, but backing Brown isn’t much of an option for me. He’s in brutal form, isn’t getting any younger and hasn’t looked good in these losses. Lima isn’t finishing fights and a lot of his recent bouts have been close, but he’s the younger fighter here and is easily more trustworthy. Brown looks like somebody who could soon hang it up if he doesn’t turn things around.
Give me Lima and the reasonable price.
