UFC 264: Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Picks, Odds, Predictions

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor
July 10, 2021 11:45 pm EDT
The Line: Dustin Poirier -130 / Conor McGregor +110
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor fight Saturday in UFC 264 at the T-Mobile Arena. Poirier enters this fight with a 27-6 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. McGregor enters this fight with a 22-5 record and is winning 86 percent of his fights by knockout.

Poirier has won six of his last seven fights and is coming off a January win over Conor McGregor. Poirier is averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Poirier is averaging 1.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Poirier is coming off a knockout win at UFC 257 that earned performance of the night. He landed 53 total strikes in the victory and produced one takedown. Poirier has built himself up to one of the top strikers in this division, as he lands violent hooks with one-punch knockout potential and will mix in leg kicks as well, as we saw in his last bout. Poirier is extremely polished on the feet with a boxing background and a tricky southpaw stance. He is also a black belt in BJJ, and while he’s not exactly quick to tap into his wrestling bag, he does some impressive work on the ground and has seven career submission victories. Poirier has finished four fights via an armbar, and he’s only been submitted twice in his career. This will be Poirier’s 10th career fight in Nevada.

McGregor has split his last six fights and is coming off a January loss to Dustin Poirier. McGregor is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. McGregor is averaging 0.70 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. In the losing effort, McGregor landed 52 total strikes and 43 percent of his significant strikes. McGregor hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. McGregor is one of the toughest fighters in the sport, as he has a tough chin and a relentless striking game that allows him to trade standing up with no issue. McGregor is an athletic fighter who can be sneaky with his leg kicks and does an above-average job of defending takedowns. He isn’t as comfortable on the canvas as you’d like, and three of his four losses have been submissions, but he has improved over the years and is capable of doing just enough to survive. McGregor has the edge against most standing up and 19 of his 22 wins have been knockouts. This will be McGregor’s eighth career fight in Nevada.

Who did our Experts Pick?
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Poirier is the safer bet here, as he just looks sharper at this point and was in control of the last bout. McGregor hasn’t spent much recent time in the octagon and has his work cut out for him if he’s not willing to check those leg kicks in the rematch. With that said, we’re getting McGregor as an underdog. Since the Jose Aldo fight, McGregor has been an underdog just once, and that was against Khabib Nurmagomedov. You don’t see these prices often Notorious.

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Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Conor McGregor +110
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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