UFC 264: Greg Hardy vs Tai Tuivasa Picks, Odds, Predictions

Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy
July 10, 2021 11:00 pm EDT
The Line: Greg Hardy +110 / Tai Tuivasa -130
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy fight Saturday in UFC 264 at the T-Mobile Arena. Tai Tuivasa enters this fight with a 11-3 record and has won 91 percent of his fights by knockout. Hardy enters this fight with a 7-2-1 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Tuivasa has split his last six fights, and he’s coming off a March win over Harry Hunsucker. Tuivasa is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Tuivasa is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Tuivasa is coming off a first round knockout at UFC Vegas 22 where he landed 14 total strikes and 77 percent of his significant strikes. Tuivasa has now produced back-to-back first round knockout victories. Tuivasa is quite an athlete for a guy his size, and he’s a very powerful striker with heavy hands and violent elbows. Tuivasa throws in a leg kick every now and then and he closes the distance well and is effective in the clinch. Tuivasa has produced knockouts in 10 of his 11 career wins and most of those knockouts have come via punches. There’s really no secrets with Tuivasa inside the octagon. This will be Tuivasa’s second career fight in Nevada.

Hardy has split his last eight fights and is coming off a December loss to Marcin Tybura. Hardy is averaging 4.83 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Hardy is averaging 0.21 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Hardy is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Vegas 17 where he landed 50 total strikes and ate 60 total strikes. It was the first time Hardy has been knocked out in his career and it will be interesting to see how he responds. Hardy is an impressive athlete and has clear power in his hands that gives him a punchers chance against anybody, and he’s made strides since turning pro three years ago. Hardy has gotten his conditioning up since when he first started fighting, and he has more versatility with his striking ability, as he mixes in knees and leg kicks along with his strong overhand. Hardy still has to improve in the clinch and show some sort of ground game if he’s going to take that next step, but he’s been coming along and has made great strides under American Top Team. With this being his 12th fight, Hardy is starting to come into his own. This will be Hardy’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

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Hardy has made positive strides since coming over to MMA, but he still has work to do before trusting him against legit quality fighters. Tuivasa is easily the best fighter Hardy has faced yet, and he puts his offense together much cleaner. Tuivasa comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and his power is scary. Despite having the reach advantage, I’m just not convinced Hardy is at this level yet. 

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Give me Tuivasa and the cheap price.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Tai Tuivasa -130
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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