UFC 264: Kris Moutinho vs Sean O’Malley Picks, Odds, Predictions

Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho
July 10, 2021 10:30 pm EDT
The Line: Sean O’Malley -1000 / Kris Moutinho +600
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Sean O’Malley and Kris Moutinho fight Saturday in UFC 264 at the T-Mobile Arena. O’Malley enters this fight with a 13-1 record and has won 69 percent of his fights by knockout. Moutinho enters this fight with a 9-4 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by decision. 

O’Malley’s has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a March win over Thomas Almeida. O’Malley is averaging 6.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. O’Malley is averaging 0.79 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. O’Malley is coming off a third round knockout at UFC 260 that earned performance of the night. In the victory, O’Malley landed 91 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. O’Malley has produced knockouts in his last three victories. O’Malley is a lengthy athlete with a kickboxing background and is an unpredictable highlight reel. He will throw anything at any moment and has some of the cleanest boxing in the sport. With his creativity, length and power, few are going to be able to standup with O’Malley. A purple belt in BJJ, O’Malley also has a deep background in grappling, so he’s far from a one trick pony. At 26 years old, O’Malley has become a must watch fighter in the UFC. This will be O’Malley’s eighth career fight in Nevada.

Kris Moutinho has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a May win over Andrew Salas. Moutinho made his last fight in the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and will make his UFC debut here. He’s fighting on short notice and is replacing the injured Louis Smolka. With limited film available, Moutinho is an OK striker but lacks legit pop in his hands and has questionable hand speed. Moutinho also lacks head movement and his coward stance allows his legs to get chewed up. Moutinho appears to be at his best in the clinch or on the canvas, and it’s his gas tank that’s allowed him to win all five of his career decisions. With 13 fights under his belt, Moutinho still seems to be a bit green to the sport. Moutinho has been finished in all four of his losses. This will be Moutinho’s first career fight in Nevada.

Who did our Experts Pick?
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Give the UFC props for finding a replacement so quickly, but this matchup is throwing Moutinho to the lions den in his debut. There’s nothing that Moutinho does that’s going to worry O’Malley if we’re being honest. O’Malley should be able to do damage in this fight and end things with a nasty knockout. The result will be fun, but this fight won’t be all that competitive.

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O’Malley by finish.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Sean O’Malley By TKO / KO
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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