UFC on ESPN 26: Mateusz Gamrot vs Jeremy Stephens Picks, Odds, Predictions

Jeremy Stephens and Mateusz Gamrot fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 26 at the UFC Apex. Stephens enters this fight with a 28-18 record and has won 68 percent of his fights by knockout. Gamrot enters this fight with a 18-1 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by decision.

Stephens has split his last eight fights and is coming off a May (2020) loss to Calvin Kattar. Stephens is averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Stephens is averaging 1.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Stephens is coming off a second round knockout loss at UFC 249 where he landed 57 total strikes and 54 percent of his significant strikes. Stephens could have very well been ahead on the scorecards until the knockout, and he still hasn’t won a fight since UFC on Fox 28. Stephens has also been out of the octagon for more than a year after his bout at UFC Vegas 24 was canceled. Stephens is an aggressive fighter who throws a lot of strikes and can take a beating when he gets into these brawl style fights. Stephens has only been knocked out three times in his career and his strike output is always high. He has very heavy hands and can end things quickly, and 10 of his 19 career knockouts have ended in the first round. Stephens is also a good grappler and has solid success with takedowns, but he does a lot of his best work on his feet where he can unload on his opponent. Stephens is a purple belt in BJJ. This will be Stephens’ 13th career fight in Nevada.

Gamrot has won five of his last six fights and is coming off an April win over Scott Holtzman. Gamrot is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Gamrot is averaging 4.91 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Gamrot is coming off his first UFC victory at UFC on ABC 2, a second round knockout. In the victory, Gamrot landed 41 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Gamrot comes rom a wrestling background and is one of the more experienced 30 year olds in the fight game, as he’s been in over 300 competitions. Gamrot doesn’t pack a punch o the feet and his technique can leave a lot to be desired, but he does enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Gamrot is a pressure style fighter and has good top control once he gets the fight where he wants it. Great grappling and solid takedown defense, Gamrot is somebody who can quickly move up the UFC ranks.

Stephens is in a bit of a rough patch where he hasn’t looked great in his last several fights, and now he’s been out of the octagon for more than a year. It’s hard to get excited about Stephens’ stock right now if we’re being honest. Gamrot’s wrestling and takedown ability is going to give Stephens issues in this bout and it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s able to finish the fight. Either way, Gamrot should control the pace of this fight and do work on the canvas.

I’ll take Gamrot, and I’ll predict a finish to lower the price.