UFC on ESPN 27: Macy Chiasson vs Aspen Ladd Picks, Odds, Predictions

Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 27 at the UFC Apex. Ladd enters this fight with a 9-1 record and has won 67 percent of her fights by knockout. Chiasson enters this fight with a 7-1 record and has won 43 percent of her fights by decision.

Ladd has won five of her last six fights and is coming off a December (2019) win over Yana Kunitskaya. Ladd is averaging 5.22 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Ladd is averaging 2.45 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 75 percent. Ladd is coming off a third round knockout at UFC on ESPN 7 where she landed 85 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Ladd is now 4-1 under the UFC banner and is 17-2 for her career when you throw in her amateur record. However, Ladd is coming off a torn ACL and MCL she suffered in training, which explains the long layoff and it will be interesting to see how she looks. Ladd comes from a kickboxing and boxing background, and she has some wrestling experience as well as a purple belt in BJJ. Ladd has been a takedown machine at the UFC level and has shown great grappling and wrestling abilities to gain position on the canvas. Ladd wants to close the distance quickly to get the fight off the feet, and she has serious ground and pound once she gets on top. If Ladd ever becomes more confident fighting standing up, she’s a legit title contender in this division. This will be Ladd’s third career fight in Nevada.

Chiasson has won four of her last five fights and is coming off a March win over Marion Reneau. Chiasson is averaging 4.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Chiasson is averaging 0.98 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 21 percent. Chiasson is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 22 where she landed 92 total strikes and produced a takedown. Chiasson has won her last two fights by decision and she’s 5-1 under the UFC banner. Chiasson is still a work in progress, as she’s only 29 years old, started MMA late and has only been a pro for four years. However, Chiasson is a bulldog in the octagon, as she delivers hard and accurate strikes both on the feet and on the canvas. Chiasson is a lengthy fighter at 5’11” and has legit pop behind her strikes. Chiasson also controls the canvas well and two of her first three victories came by submission. As she builds her resume and gains experience, Chiasson is a name to seriously consider for a potential title shot. This will be Chiasson’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Ladd should be favored under normal circumstances, but she’s been out of the octagon forever and is fresh off major knee surgery. I always have issues backing fighters coming off injuries or super long layoffs. Also, Chiasson is a nasty fighter with the ability to destroy what you think is an easy ticket. Chiasson is a quality fighter with a decent finish rate, and I would have given her a chance to beat Ladd even without the question marks. Chiasson is not a walk in the park for anybody, and she has a serious size advantage here as well.

Give me Chiasson and the plus money.