Misha Cirkunov vs Krzysztof Jotko
October 2, 2021 11:00 pm EDT
The Line: Krzysztof Jotko -145 / Misha Cirkunov +125
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Misha Cirkunov and Krzysztof Jotko fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 193 at the UFC Apex. Cirkunov enters this fight with a 15-6 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission. Jotko enters this fight with a 22-5 record and has won 68 percent of his fights by decision.
Cirkunov has split his last eight fights and is coming off a March loss to Ryan Spann. Cirkunov is averaging 4.18 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Cirkunov is averaging 4.28 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Cirkunov is coming off a first round knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 187 where he landed just five total strikes. Cirkunov hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time and hopes to snag his first win since UFC Fight Night 158. Cirkunov is a 34-year-old from the Soviet Union and is a black belt in BJJ with a background in judo and wrestling. Cirkunov has been a takedown machine at the UFC level and he has eight career submissions. Cirkunov is a good athlete with a strong overhand and will mix in a kick, but he’s most comfortable when he can get his hands on his opponent. Each of Cirkunov’s last 10 victories have been finishes. Cirkunov hasn’t seen a decision in nearly a decade. Cirkunov has had only two career decisions, and both of those were victories. This will be Cirkunov’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Jotko has split his last eight fights and is coming off a May loss to Sean Strickland. Jotko is averaging 2.94 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Jotko is averaging 1.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Jotko is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN 23 where he landed 37 total strikes and ate 84 total strikes. Jotko has seen each of his last four fights go the distance. Jotko is an awkward striker with clear knockout power and has an effective ground and pound attack. Jotko is also not shy with his takedown attempts despite just one career submission victory, and he does a good job of controlling the fight. Jotko has an above-average gas tank that allows him to be effective for all three rounds, winning 15 of his 17 career decisions. A tough Polish fighter, Jotko simply finds ways to win even if it’s not always pretty. This will be Jotko’s second career fight in Nevada.
You can understand why Jotko is the slight favorite in this fight and his southpaw, tricky stance makes him tough to read. However, Cirkunov has the higher probability of finishing fights and he’d have an edge in either the clinch or on the canvas. Cirkunov’s style matches well with Jotko’s unique style and it makes him a live dog in this bout.
Tough fight to predict, but I like Cirkunov in this spot.