UFC 268: Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington fight Saturday in UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Usman enters this fight with a 19-1 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by decision. Covington enters this fight with a 16-2 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. 

Usman has won his last 18 fights and is coming off an April win over Jorge Masvidal. Usman is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Usman is averaging 3.27 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Usman is coming off a second round knockout win at UFC 261 where he landed 32 total strikes and produced two takedowns. It was Usman’s third knockout in his last four fights and really changes the way some look at his game. Usman is a known as a takedown machine with a deep wrestling background, a black belt in BJJ and a quality ground and pound attack. He is a really gifted athlete who usually gets the fight where he wants it and can spend the majority of the fight from the top position where he wears on his opponents and controls the fight from start to finish. However, Usman has shown a much improved striking game and his pop really proves he’s a balanced fighter who can hold his own across the board. This will be Usman’s second career fight in New York.

Covington has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a September (2020) win over Tyron Woodley. Covington is averaging 4.12 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Covington is averaging 4.61 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Covington is coming off a TKO win at UFC Fight Night 178 where he landed 232 total strikes and produced three takedowns. It was a dominating performance, and Covington now fights for the first time in over a year for the first time since turning pro in 2012. Covington comes from a wrestling background, and he has an impressive gas tank to go along with high-level grappling and five submission victories on his resume. However, Covington is also a tricky southpaw with a relentless work rate and some serious pop in his hands. While five of his last six victories have ended in decisions, Covington has shown he can trade standing up and throw the wrestling out the window. At 33 years old, Covington is a balanced fighter who is worthy of fighting for the belt. This will be Covington’s first career fight in New York.

Covington is no slouch, and it’s hard to turn him down at this big price. People seem to forget that Covington was trading with Usman entering that fifth round of UFC 245, and it was anyone’s fight. I won’t talk you off the ledge if you’re looking to chase Covington in the underdog role. The problem is Usman has been so consistent over the years and has burned my wallet every time I’ve tried to bet against him in terms of value. Usman just finds a way and is often dominant. Throw in the fact there seems to be bad blood between these two guys, and I’ll take Usman within distance to shave the price down.