UFC Vegas 44: Jamahal Hill vs Jimmy Crute Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jimmy Crute and Jamahal Hill fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 44 at the UFC Apex. Crute enters this fight with a 12-2 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by knockout. Hill enters this fight with an 8-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout.

Crute has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off an April win over Anthony Smith. Crute is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Crute is averaging 4.97 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 80 percent. Crute is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 261 where he landed 34 total strikes and 51 percent of his significant strikes. Crute was in that fight up to that point, and he now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Crute is a black belt in BJJ and a green belt in Judo. He’s finished nine of his 12 victories and has won all three decisions. Crute is a very accurate striker with solid pop, a successful takedown artist, and he defends takedowns at a 60 percent clip as well. At only 25 years old, Crute has the ability to challenge for a belt at some point in his career. This will be Crute’s second career fight in Nevada.

Hill has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a June loss to Paul Craig. He is averaging 7.50 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Hill is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Hill is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 263 where he landed three total strikes. It was a one-sided event, and Hill now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Hill is a tricky southpaw striker with a 79-inch reach and has been very accurate with his strikes under the UFC banner. A blue belt in BJJ, Hill could improve his takedown defense and needs to get better on the ground overall. However, Hill does have enough scrambling ability to survive the ground. Hill is a late bloomer at 30 years old, but he’s a scrappy fighter who likes his chances standing up due to his raw striking power. This will be Hill’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Hill is a live dog here because of his ability to produce knockouts, and he’s the much bigger fighter with a two-inch height edge and a five-inch reach advantage. With that said, Crute is head and shoulders the more balanced of the two, as he can bang on the feet, but he also has a clear edge on the ground. I’m also worried about backing fighters coming off their first career loss, especially it being a knockout. We have no idea how Hill will respond to adversity. Either way, I’m very high on Crute’s ability, and it will take more than one loss to knock me off the bandwagon.

Crute bounces back.