UFC Vegas 44: Leonardo Santos vs Clay Guida Picks, Predictions, Odds

Clay Guida and Leonardo Santos fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 44 at the UFC Apex. Guida enters this fight with a 36-21 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by decision. Santos enters this fight with a 18-4 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission.

Guida has split his last eight fights and is coming off an August loss against Mark Madsen. Guida is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Guida is averaging 3.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Guida is coming off a split decision loss at UFC Vegas 34 where he landed 72 total strikes and 33 percent of his significant strikes. This will be Guida’s third fight of the year, and he’s looking for his second victory during that span. Guida has been a mixed bag the last several years, and you have to question if age plays a part, as he’s a week away from 40 years old. Guida is not the most accurate striker in the world and may be a bit too wild for his own good, but he’s one of the more entertaining fighters in MMA history. Guida is a ball of energy and as tough as they come, and his work rate is up there with the best in the sport. Guida always comes forward, goes for takedowns aggressively, throws relentless strikes and has been in many wars over the years. Guida has also been knocked out just twice in 21 career losses, which is a sign of his toughness given his fighting style. This will be Guida’s 11th career fight in Nevada.

Santos has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a March loss against Grant Dawson. Santos is averaging 2.65 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Santos is averaging 1.07 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 29 percent. Santos is coming off a loss at UFC Vegas 22, a bout where he landed 74 total strikes and produced a takedown. It was Santos’ first loss since his World Victory Road days in 2009. Santos is a fourth degree black belt who has nine career submissions and has never been submitted himself. Santos has a deep background in submission wrestling and has a takedown defense percentage of 89 percent. Santos is also accurate with his strikes, and he’s becoming more comfortable with his shots, as we saw in his knockout win over Stevie Ray. This will be Santo’s third career fight in Nevada.

This fight should be cherished, as both of these guys are up there in age, and you never know when It’s going to be the end. Guida and the big plus money is worth a look because you know the work rate you’re going to get and that gives him a punchers chance every time. However, Guida hasn’t looked great over the years and the wars have taken their toll. Santos is still a fresh 41 years old, and he has his deep ground game he can tap into to really slow things down. Santos is the much safer, logical bet here.

I’ll lay the juice.