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UFC 269: Dustin Poirier vs Charles Oliveira Picks, Predictions, Odds

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
December 11, 2021 11:55 pm EDT
The Line: Charles Oliveira +125 / Dustin Poirier -145
(Get latest betting odds)

Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier fight Saturday in UFC 269 at the T-Mobile Arena. Oliveira enters this fight with a 31-8 record and is winning 61 percent of his fights by submission. Poirier enters this fight with a 28-6 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout.

Oliveira has won nine straight fights and is coming off a May win over Michael Chandler. Oliveira is averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Oliveira is coming off a knockout victory at UFC 262 that earned performance of the night. Oliveira hasn’t lost a fight since UFC 218, and he’s produced finishes in eight of his last nine fights. Oliveira looks to win three fights in a calendar year. Oliveira is one of the better grapplers in the sport who has a high takedown percentage and an impressive submission game to where most don’t want to fight him on the canvas. Oliveira has 19 career submission victories to his name, and seven of those wins came by rear-naked choke. Oliveira’s 14 submissions and his 17 finishes overall are both UFC records. While Oliveira is known for his scrappy ground game, he’s also proven he can hold his own on his feet, as he moves well, mixes in leg kicks and gets in and out with his combinations. Oliveira has quickly become a balanced fighter who finishes fights on his terms and is almost always the most exciting fighter on the card. This will be Oliveira’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

Poirier has won seven of his last eight fights and is coming off a June win over Conor McGregor. Poirier is averaging 5.62 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Poirier is averaging 1.50 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Poirier is coming off a knockout win at UFC 264, his second straight knockout victory. Poirier looks to win three fights in 2021 and put his name in the hat for fighter of the year. Poirier has built himself up to one of the top strikers in this division, as he lands violent hooks with one-punch knockout potential and will mix in leg kicks as well. Poirier is extremely polished on the feet, with a boxing background and a tricky southpaw stance. He is also a black belt in BJJ, and while he’s not exactly quick to tap into his wrestling bag, he does some impressive work on the ground and has seven career submission victories. Poirier has finished four fights via an armbar, and he’s only been submitted twice in his career. This will be Poirier’s third career fight in Nevada.

Oliveira and plus money is very hard to turn down, as he’s been one of the most consistent fighters over the last five years, has one of the sport’s elite ground games and his striking has come a long way. This line is disrespectful to Oliveira. With that said, Poirier has a clear advantage on the feet, his takedown defense is good enough and he has enough wrestling ability to survive the canvas if needed. An Oliveira victory should surprise nobody, but I just have a feeling this is Poirier’s fight to win.

I’ll lay the somewhat reasonable juice. 

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Dustin Poirier -145

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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