UFC Fight Night 205: Bryan Barberena vs Matt Brown Picks, Predictions, Odds

Matt Brown and Bryan Barberena fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 205 at the Nationwide Arena. Brown enters this fight with a 23-18 record and has won 65 percent of his fights by knockout. Barberena enters this fight with a 16-8 record and has won 63 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Brown has lost seven of his last 11 fights and is coming off a June win over Dhiego Lima. He is averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Brown is averaging 1.56 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Brown is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ESPN 25 where he landed 30 total strikes. Brown has won three of his last five fights, and all those wins have come by knockout. At 41 years old and with hit or miss results, it’s important Brown finds ways to win some of these fights. The Immortal is a brown belt in both BJJ and Judo. Brown is an accurate striker with 15 knockouts on his resume, and he knows his way around the canvas. However, Brown has been submitted 10 times and has lost five of his seven career decisions. This will be Brown’s 10th career fight in Ohio, his birth state.

Barberena has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a December win over Darian Weeks. Barberena is averaging 4.98 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Barberena is averaging 0.34 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Barberena is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 31 where he landed 134 total strikes and ate 125 total strikes. Barberena has seen each of his last three fights go the distance, and he looks for back to back wins for the first time since 2016. Barberena is an accurate, volume striker who is just as effective landing powerful shots in the clinch and on the ground. Barberena is able to trade strikes in the middle of the octagon due to a very strong chin, and he’s only been knocked out twice in his career. Bam Bam has seen 50 percent of his fights end in knockout. This will be Barberena’s first career fight in Ohio.

It’s hard to get a feel for either of these fighters, as they’re just so hit or miss. Barberena probably should be favored because of the youth that’s on his side, and he lands far more strikes per minute. With that said, Brown has the edge in the clinch or on the ground if this fight ends up there and this is a home fight for him, so having the crowd on his side should help. Brown is 7-2 in his career when he fights in Ohio.

Give me Brown in this toss up fight.