UFC 274: Joe Lauzon vs Donald Cerrone Picks, Predictions, Odds

Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon fight Saturday in UFC 274 at the Footprint Center. Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-16-1 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Lauzon enters this fight with a 28-15 record and has won 61 percent of his fights by submission.

Cerrone has split his last 22 fights and is coming off a May (2021) loss to Alex Morono. Cerrone is averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Cerrone is averaging 1.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cerrone is coming off a knockout loss at UFC on ESPN 24 where he landed 18 total strikes and ate 41 total strikes. Cerrone hasn’t won a fight since UFC Fight Night 151, and it’s fair to question if this is the end of Cowboy now that he’s 39 years old. When in good form, Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A polished wrestler who has a black belt in BJJ and Gaidojutsu, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. A tough fighter who never backs down from the competition, Cerrone’s work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why he’s one of the more popular fighters in the sport. However, Cerrone needs to win a fight before people start questioning if he’s done. This will be Cerrone’s second career fight in Arizona.

Lauzon has split his last 12 fights and is coming off an October (2019) win over Jonathan Pearce. Lauzon is averaging 2.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Lauzon is averaging 2.39 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Lauzon is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ESPN 6 where he landed 28 total strikes and ate just eight total strikes. Lauzon hasn’t fought in two and a half years, and he’s 37 years old now, so it’s fair to question what he looks like at this point. Lauzon looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2013-14. Before the hiatus, Lauzon was one of the best finishers in the lightweight division, as only two of his wins have ended in decision, and he’s a threat to end things whenever he gets his opponent on the canvas. Lauzon has 17 career submissions and seven knockouts, and he’s actually lost six of his eight career decisions. A black belt in BJJ, Lauzon is a successful takedown artist and is scary once he gets the bout where he wants it. This will be Lauzon’s second career fight in Arizona.

It’s weird to see Cerrone in the favorite role based on his current form and the fact he’s looked washed up at times, but we haven’t seen Lauzon in years and I don’t like backing guys after such a massive layoff. Cerrone also seems a bit motivated in past interviews, and we could see him put together one last push before going out on top. Cerrone is not an easy guy to takedown, and he’s comfortably the better and more accurate striker on the feet. 

I don’t love the price, but I’ll look for Cowboy to end the drought.