UFC 274: Justin Gaethje vs Charles Oliveira Picks, Predictions, Odds

Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje fight Saturday in UFC 274 at the Footprint Center. Oliveira enters this fight with a 32-8 record and is winning 63 percent of his fights by submission. Gaethje enters this fight with a 23-3 record and has won 83 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Oliveira has won 10 straight fights and is coming off a December win over Dustin Poirier. Oliveira is averaging 3.44 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.50 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Oliveira is coming off a submission victory at UFC 269 that earned performance of the night. In the win, Oliveira landed 98 total strikes and 55 percent of his significant strikes. Oliveira hasn’t lost a fight since UFC 218, and he’s produced finishes in nine of his last 10 fights. Oliveira looks to win his fifth fight since 2019. Oliveira is one of the better grapplers in the sport who has a high takedown percentage and an impressive submission game to where nobody wants to fight him on the canvas. Oliveira has 20 career submission victories to his name, and eight of those wins came by rear-naked choke. Oliveira’s 15 submissions and his 18 finishes overall are both UFC records. While Oliveira is known for his scrappy ground game, he’s also proven he can hold his own on his feet, as he moves well, mixes in leg kicks and gets in and out with his combinations. Oliveira has quickly become a balanced fighter who finishes fights on his terms and is almost always the most exciting fighter on the card. This will be Oliveira’s first career fight in Arizona.

Gaethje has won 10 of his last 13 fights and is coming off a November win over Michael Chandler. Gaethje is averaging 7.50 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Gaethje is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Gaethje is coming off a decision win at UFC 268 that earned fight of the night honors. In the victory, Gaethje landed 133 total strikes and 63 percent of his significant strikes. Gaethje has now won all three of his career decisions. Gaethje has shown throughout his career that the striking power and chin is there for him to hold his own with anybody standing up, and he’s clearly most comfortable on his feet. Gaethje can give and take a beating, and he loves coming forward with pressure, making his opponent uncomfortable. Gaethje doesn’t mind being in danger and has mentioned before how he’s comfortable in scary situations. However, Gaethje comes from a wrestling background, so his ground game can’t be completely slept on. At this point, Gaethje seems to be 100 percent dedicated to his standup and wants to head-hunt. This will be Gaethje’s seventh career fight in Arizona, his birth state.

Oliveira should be favored for obvious reasons, as he gets the fight where he wants it, and he’s nearly impossible to beat once on the canvas. Oliveira is enjoying a ridiculous stretch, and it’s one that could continue for a while at just 32 years old. However, Gaethje has a deep wrestling background that makes you believe he can hang around if on the ground. Also, Gaethje is such a warrior and crazy in the octagon who has no problem looking death in the face, it’s hard to turn down the plus money. Gaethje just gives himself a chance to win every time he steps in the octagon, and there’s value to that.

Give me Gaethje and the plus money.