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UFC 274: Ovince Saint Preux vs Mauricio Rua Picks, Predictions, Odds

Mauricio Rua vs Ovince Saint Preux
May 7, 2022 11:00 pm EDT
The Line: Ovince Saint Preux -265 / Mauricio Rua +225
(Get latest betting odds)

Mauricio Rua and Ovince Saint Preux fight Saturday in UFC 274 at the Footprint Center. Rua enters this fight with a 27-12-1 record and has won 78 percent of his fights by knockout. Saint Preux enters this fight with a 25-16 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout.

Rua has won five of his last eight fights and is coming off a November (2020) loss to Paul Craig. Rua is averaging 3.57 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Rua is averaging 2.12 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Roa is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 255 where he landed 25 total strikes and ate 54 total strikes. Rua looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2014. Rua hasn’t fought in a year and a half, and it’s going to be interesting to see how he looks now that he’s 40 years old. Rua is an aggressive fighter who has very heavy hands, uses his legs well, and has seen 21 of his 27 victories end in knockouts. Rua is a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ. Rua obviously does his best work standing up, but he’s also a solid takedown artist as well and can work his way back to his feet. Rua has a successful ground and pound, and he has a high gas tank that’s helped him win five of his eight decisions. This will be Rua’s first career fight in Arizona.

Saint Preux has lost six of his last nine fights and is coming off a June loss to Tanner Boser. He is averaging 2.65 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Saint Preux is averaging 1.21 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Saint Preux is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 190 where he landed 12 total strikes and ate 33 strikes. Losing his heavyweight debut, Saint Preux now hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time since 2016-17. Saint Preux has a decorated career, but he’s been on the struggle bus lately, and it’s fair to question if age has caught up now that he’s 39 years old. OSP has knockout power in both hands and devastating leg kicks. He isn’t the fighter you can rush in on due to his striking ability and above-average takedown defense, and he has one of the best ground and pounds if the fight does go to the canvas. OSP has enough wrestling to survive on the ground, but he’s most effective on his feet, where he can unleash his power and use his unique combination of size and athleticism. Saint Preux has lost nine of his 14 career decisions. This will be Saint Preux’s first career fight in Arizona.

This is a rematch of UFC Fight Night 56 over seven years ago where OSP won by knockout. I can understand why Saint Preux is favored, especially when he’s had more time to adjust to the heavyweight division. OSP is the bigger fighter with a four-inch reach advantage, and his southpaw stance makes things tricky. With all that said, Saint Preux hasn’t looked great over the years, and I’m not thrilled to back him in the big favorite role. Rua is getting up there in age, but he’s still a powerful striker who needs to land just one shot, and there’s value to that. Rua doesn’t need to win rounds or dominate, he needs to land just one shot to flip this thing on its head.

Give me Rua and the plus money.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Mauricio Rua +225

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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