UFC 274: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chandler Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson
May 7, 2022 11:15 pm EDT
The Line: Tony Ferguson +300 / Michael Chandler -400
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson fight Saturday in UFC 274 at the Footprint Center. Chandler enters this fight with a 22-7 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by knockout. Ferguson enters this fight with a 25-6 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout.

Chandler has split his last six fights and is coming off a November loss to Justin Gaethje. Chandler is averaging 5.17 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Chandler is averaging 1.73 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Chandler is coming off a decision loss at UFC 268 that earned fight of the night honors. In the losing effort, Chandler landed 104 total strikes and ate 133 total strikes. Chandler now looks to avoid three straight losses for the first time since 2013-14. Chandler looks for his first win since beating Dan Hooker at UFC 257. Chandler comes from a deep wrestling background, has a high takedown defense percentage, and has never been submitted in his career. Chandler usually gets the fight where he wants it, and he has seven career submission wins, with four of those coming by the rear-naked choke. Chandler can also more than hold his own on the feet, as he’s a volume striker and does have 10 career knockouts. Each of Chandler’s last three wins have been knockouts due to punches. This will be Chandler’s first career fight in Arizona.

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Ferguson has lost three straight fights and is coming off a May (2021) loss to Beneil Dariush. Ferguson is averaging 5.15 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Ferguson is averaging 0.42 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Ferguson is coming off a decision loss at UFC 262 where he landed 37 total strikes and ate 76 total strikes and was taken down three times. Ferguson looks to avoid four straight losses and snag his first win since UC 238. When in good form, Ferguson is simply a savage in the octagon, with a high work rate and ridiculous cardio that allows him to keep pushing with the same pace in each round. Ferguson has a reputation for beating up fighters and leaving them in a bloody mess. While his striking is elite level, Ferguson is also tough to takedown, and he has a deep background in wrestling and is a black belt in BJJ. Ferguson was a champion high school and college wrestler, and he’s very comfortable on his back, where he’s no stranger to powerful strikes and can change position very quickly. However, Ferguson has been in wars, and he’s not getting any younger at 38 years old. This will be Ferguson’s first career fight in Arizona.

I love Ferguson as much as the next guy and would love to see him right the ship, but it feels like he’s taken so much punishment, and it’s finally caught up to him. Chandler should be the favorite here, given the less wear and tear and his ability to push the pace and tire out his opponent in the later rounds. With that said, Chandler isn’t exactly a world beater, and he has a history of coming up small in bigger fights. Ferguson hasn’t looked great in his last few fights, but it would surprise nobody if he puts together a strong showing and shows flashes of being the guy he was just a couple of years ago. It wasn’t that long ago when Ferguson was in line for a title shot. 

This price is a tad bit disrespectful toward Ferguson. I’ll side with the upset.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Tony Ferguson +300

Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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