UFC Fight Night 206: Michel Pereira vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Picks, Predictions, Odds

Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 206 at the UFC Apex. Ponzinibbio enters this fight with a 28-5 record and has won 54 percent of his fights by knockout. Pereira enters this fight with a 27-11 record and has won 37 percent of his fights by knockout.

Ponzinibbio has won eight of his last 10 fights and is coming off a December loss to Geoff Neal. Ponzinibbio is averaging 4.79 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Ponzinibbio is averaging 0.51 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Ponzinibbio is coming off a split decision loss at UFC 269 where he landed 91 total strikes and had one takedown. Ponzinibbio has seen five of his last eight fights go the distance, and he hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time. Ponzinibbio is an aggressive volume striker who uses his legs well and has a reach of 73 inches. A black belt in BJJ, Ponzinibbio has produced knockouts in 15 of his 28 victories and has won seven of his nine career decisions. This will be Ponzinibbio’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Pereira has won seven of his last nine fights and is coming off a January win over André Fialho. Pereira is averaging 4.71 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Pereira is averaging 1.84 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Pereira is coming off a decision win at UFC 270 where he landed 112 total strikes and produced a takedown. Pereira has seen his last three fights go the distance, and he’s won each of his last four fights overall. Pereira is fun to watch who has great athleticism, is unpredictable on the feet, will throw anything at any moment and has some of the most impressive knockouts you’ll ever see. A black belt in BJJ and karate, Pereira is hard to read, and it makes him quite dangerous. Pereira is also a tough fighter with solid defense, and eight of his 11 career losses have been decisions. This will be Pereira’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Ponzinibbio hasn’t lost twice in a row throughout his career, and he has an edge in terms of conditioning. There’s a path for Ponzinibbio to grind this fight out and win on the cards. However, Pereira has a clear edge in striking power, striking accuracy and even takedown percentage. There’s a high probability Pereira lands something strong at some point and flips this bout on its head. This is a dangerous fight for Ponzinibbio, somebody who has been knocked out in three of his five losses.

Give me Pereira and the cheap price.