UFC on ESPN 37: Tim Means vs Kevin Holland Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Holland and Tim Means fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 37 at Moody Center. Holland enters this fight with a 22-7 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Means enters this fight with a 32-12-1 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout.

Holland has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a March win over Alex Oliveira. Holland is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Holland is averaging 0.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Holland is coming off a knockout win at UFC 272 that earned performance of the night. Holland landed 51 total strikes and 65 percent of his significant strikes. Holland is a lengthy, athletic fighter with an 81-inch reach and impressive stand-up ability. He’s light on his feet, constantly moving and not giving his opponent an easy target. Holland has a boxing background with quick hands, good footwork and 13 career knockouts. A tough, confident fighter, Holland has produced knockouts in each of his last three victories. A black belt in Kung Fu and BJJ, Holland closes the distance well to land that big shot, and he’s gotten a lot more comfortable on the canvas over the years. Because of his length, Holland can really make life difficult for his opponent once on the ground, and he has five career submission victories. Five of Holland’s seven career losses have come by decision. This will be Holland’s 10th career fight in Texas.

Means has won 5 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a June (2021) win over Nicolas Dalby. Means is averaging 5.06 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Means is averaging 0.92 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Means is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 190 where he landed 94 total strikes, 56 percent of his significant strikes, and produced one takedown. Means has won three straight fights, and all of those victories have gone to a decision. Means looks to win four straight fights for the first time since 2014-15. Means is an athletic fighter who comes from a boxing background and does his best work standing up, where he has a high work rate and solid defense. Means doesn’t take a lot of punishment on the feet and has only been knocked out twice in 12 career losses. Means has above-average takedown defense and has five career submission victories, but he’s also been submitted five times. Means has 19 career knockouts and has finished 24 of his 32 wins overall. This will be Means’ fourth career fight in Texas.

This has a chance to be one of the more exciting fights on the card between two guys who have found a bit of a groove. The difference here is Holland’s length, as he has a six-inch reach advantage. I’d expect Holland to deliver a good amount of leg kicks and eventually look to land something strong. While Means has looked sharp in his last few bouts, and he doesn’t get often finished, this is a dangerous fight for him.

I like Holland to win this fight by finish, shaving down the expensive price.