UFC 276: Bryan Barberena vs Robbie Lawler Picks, Predictions, Odds

Robbie Lawler and Bryan Barberena fight Saturday in UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. Lawler enters this fight with a 29-15 record and has won 72 percent of his fights by knockout. Barberena enters this fight with a 17-8 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout.

Lawler has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a September win over Nick Diaz. Lawler is averaging 3.73 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Lawler is averaging 0.66 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Lawler is coming off a knockout win at UFC 266 where he landed 131 total strikes and 59 percent of his significant strikes. It was Lawler’s middleweight debut, and he now looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2015-16. Lawler is an aggressive striker with legit knockout potential and is just as effective in the clinch as he is standing up. Five of Lawler’s last 8 wins have come by decision, but he has a brawler feel to him, and he still has that approach despite now being 40 years old. Lawler is also quite the takedown artist, but he’s been submitted 5 times, so the ground game can be a slippery slope. A tricky southpaw, Lawler has a fighting style that’s made him a fan favorite since joining the UFC over 2 decades ago. This will be Lawler’s 14th career fight in Nevada.

Barberena has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a March win over Matt Brown. Barberena is averaging 5.61 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Barberena is averaging 0.17 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Barberena is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 33 where he landed 186 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned fight of the night honors, and Barberena looks to win 3 straight fights for the first time since 2014. Barberena has seen each of his last 4 fights go the distance. Barberena is an accurate, volume striker who is just as effective landing powerful shots in the clinch and on the ground. Barberena is able to trade strikes in the middle of the octagon due to a very strong chin, and he’s only been knocked out twice in his career. Bam Bam has seen 12 of his 25 fights end in knockouts. This will be Barberena’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

This should be a fun fight between two accurate strikers with knockout pop. Has a chance to be the fight of the night. I understand why Lawler is the favorite based on being the bigger name and what not, but there’s some value with Barberena as a slight underdog. Barberena has been the busier striker of the two recently, and he’s more accurate. There’s still something left in the tank, but I’m not thrilled to back a 40-year-old Lawler in the favorite role.

Give me Barberena in this fight.