MMA

UFC Fight Night 208: Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes Picks, Predictions, Odds

Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall
July 23, 2022 5:15 pm EDT
The Line: Tom Aspinall -137 / Curtis Blaydes +117
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 208 at The O2 Arena. Blaydes enters this fight with a 16-3 record and has won 69 percent of his fights by knockout. Aspinall enters this fight with an 12-2 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout.

Blaydes has won 6 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a March win over Chris Daukaus. Blaydes is averaging 3.52 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Blaydes is averaging 6.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Blaydes is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ESPN 33 where he earned performance of the night. In the victory, Blaydes landed 30 total strikes and ate 13 total strikes. Blaydes has now seen 4 of his last 7 wins end in knockouts, and he has 11 knockouts for his career. Blaydes is a rare heavyweight in that he’s highly aggressive with his takedowns and has extreme success with his attempts, often coming in with a tackle form and throwing around some of the biggest guys in the sport. Once on the canvas, Blaydes has a nasty ground and pound, and it’s where he’s finished a lot of his fights. Blaydes can obviously hold his own standing up and has one-punch knockout potential, but he’s most effective on the ground and usually follows up his opponent’s strike attempt with a takedown rather than a counterstrike. With a background in wrestling and a blue belt in BJJ, Blaydes is one of the more balanced fighters in this division. However, all three of Blaydes losses have come by knockout, so his chin can be questioned. Blaydes also has never produced a submission victory. This will be Blaydes’ first career fight in England.

Aspinall has won 8 straight fights and is coming off a March win over Alexander Volkov. Aspinall is averaging 7.33 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 65 percent. Aspinall is averaging 4.07 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Aspinall is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 204 where he landed 35 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. The bout earned performance of the night, the third straight time Aspinall has earned that honor. Aspinall is also now 5-0 under the UFC banner. Aspinall comes from a boxing background and obviously has great knockout power in either hand, as 8 of his last 10 wins have come by knockout. All 9 of Aspinall’s knockout victories have been decided in the first round, and all 12 wins have been finishes. Aspinall has never seen a decision in his career. Aspinall does a good job of keeping his hands up, and he is usually walking down his opponent. A black belt in BJJ and only 29 years old, Aspinall is quickly becoming one of the most dangerous fighters in this division. This will be Aspinall’s 11th career fight in England, his birth country.

You can make a case for either fighter here, but I’m not eager to step in front of the hype train that is Aspinall. The guy has been on a tear since joining the UFC, and he’s shown a bit of everything. Aspinall will also have the home crowd behind him, which never hurts. Blaydes is a bad dude, and he’s capable of quieting England, but Aspinall’s level of BJJ is probably the difference here.

Give me Aspinall and the cheap price. 

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Tom Aspinall -137

Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.
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