UFC 277: Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Moreno Picks, Predictions, Odds

Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France fight Saturday in UFC 277 at the American Airlines Center. Moreno enters this fight with a 19-6-2 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by submission. Kara-France enters this fight with a 24-9 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by knockout.

Moreno has won 4 of his last 6 fights, and he’s coming off a January loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Moreno is averaging 1.84 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Moreno is coming off a decision loss at UFC 270 where he landed 106 total strikes but ate 95 total strikes and was taken down twice. The bout earned fight of the night honors, and Moreno lost his title after just winning it at UFC 263. He looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in his career. Moreno is an energetic, tough Mexican fighter who won’t get outworked in the octagon. He is a black belt in BJJ, has 11 career submission wins, and his scrambling ability is as good as it gets in this division. Moreno can reverse position quickly and does a good job of fighting the hands in his takedown defense. He has also improved his striking over the years and has shown he can trade on the feet if needed. Despite 6 career losses, Moreno has never been finished in his career. This will be Moreno’s first career fight in Texas.

Kara-France has won 12 of his last 14 fights, and he’s coming off a March win over Askar Askarov. Kara-France is averaging 4.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Kara-France is averaging 0.43 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 21 percent. Kara-France is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 33 where he landed 64 total strikes and ate 37 total strikes. Kara-France is now 7-2 under the UFC banner, has won 3 straight fights overall, and he’s 10-4 in decisions for his career. Don’t Blink now looks for 4 straight wins for the first time since 2018-19. Kara-France comes from a kickboxing background, has a blue belt in BJJ and has 11 knockout victories. Kara-France has pop in both hands, mixes in his legs well, and while he’s not the most accurate striker, his pace makes up for it. Kara-France also has good cardio that’s helped him win the majority of his fights that see the judges. This will be Kara-France’s first career fight in Texas.

This should be a fun rematch from UFC 245 where Moreno won in decision. Moreno landed 91 total strikes and 32 percent of his significant strikes, while Kara-France landed 82 total strikes and 35 percent of his significant strikes. As for the rematch, I have to lean toward Moreno getting the best of this fight as well. As talented as Kara-France is, it’s Moreno with the size advantage, more balance to his attack with his takedown ability and his work rate makes him tough to bet against. There’s just something about Moreno that you like as a bettor, as he’s always busy and gives himself a chance to win.

Give me Moreno by decision to shave down the juice.