UFC Vegas 59: Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 59 at the UFC Apex. Santos enters this fight with a 22-10 record and has won 68 percent of his fights by knockout. Hill enters this fight with an 10-1 record and has won 60 percent of his fights by knockout.

Santos has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a March loss to Magomed Ankalaev. Santos is averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Santos is averaging 0.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Santos is coming off a decision loss at UFC Vegas 50 where he landed 81 total strikes and ate 114 total strikes. Santos has now lost 4 of his last 5 fights, and 4 of those fights overall have gone the distance. The Sledgehammer has still won 6 of his 10 career decisions. There are no secrets when it comes to Santos, as he’s pure knockout power and wants a fight standing up where he can let his hands go. While a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ, Santos doesn’t tap into his ground game often and rarely even attempts a takedown. Santos is throwing bombs, and 8 of his last 10 wins have been finishes. Santos will also throw in some strong body kicks and has produced multiple knockouts with his legs. Santos has 1 career submission victory, which was in December 2011. This will be Santos’ 11th career fight in Nevada.

Hill has won 6 of his last 8 fights and is coming off a February win over Johnny Walker. He is averaging 7.06 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Hill is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0.00 percent. Hill is coming off a knockout victory at UFC Vegas 48 where he earned performance of the night. Sweet Dreams has earned the bonus in back-to-back fights, and he’s now 5-1-1 under the UFC banner. Hill is a tricky southpaw striker with a 79-inch reach and is usually very accurate with his strikes. A blue belt in BJJ, Hill could improve his takedown defense and needs to get better on the ground overall. However, Hill does have enough scrambling ability to survive the ground, and none of his fights have ended in submission. A late bloomer at 31 years old, Hill is a scrappy fighter with raw striking power, as he showed in his last bout. This will be Hill’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Santos can never be overlooked with his pop and toughness, as he’s somebody who arguably beat Jon Jones at UFC 239 a few years ago. This line is a bit disrespectful. With that said, Santos is getting up there in age, and he’s had issues finishing fights lately. Hill has been on a tear his last couple fights, and it’s hard to bet against him with what we’ve seen. Hill is a tricky southpaw, has a clear size advantage with a 3-inch reach edge, and he likes to push the pace. I can’t bet against Hill here, and I’ll take him to win inside distance to shave down the price.