Li Jingliang vs Daniel Rodriguez
September 10, 2022 11:05 pm EDT
The Line: Daniel Rodriguez -155 / Li Jingliang +135
(Click here for latest betting odds)
Li Jingliang and Daniel Rodriguez fight Saturday in UFC 279 at the T-Mobile Arena. Li enters this fight with a 19-7 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by knockout. Rodriguez enters this fight with a 16-2 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout.
Li has won 9 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a July win over Muslim Salikhov. Li is averaging 4.39 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Li is averaging 1.27 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Li is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ABC 3 where he landed 40 total strikes and produced a takedown. The bout earned performance of the night, the fourth time Li has earned the bonus in his last 6 fights. Li is now 11-5 under the UFC banner, and he’s produced knockouts in 3 of his last 4 wins. Li is a black belt in BJJ, with power in both hands and impressive defense on the feet. Li is also an effective takedown artist who has 4 career submission victories. A balanced fighter from China, Li has produced finishes overall in 13 of his 19 victories. Li has never been knocked out in his career. This will be Li’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
Rodriguez has won 10 of his last 11 fights and is coming off an August (2021) win over Kevin Lee. Rodriguez is averaging 8.06 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Rodriguez is averaging 0.84 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Rodriguez is coming off a decision victory at UFC on ESPN 30 where he landed 137 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. Rodriguez is now 7-1 under the UFC banner, and 4 of his last 6 fights have gone the distance. Rodriguez will fight for the first time in over a year, his longest layoff since becoming pro back in 2015. Rodriguez is a striker at heart who works behind his jab and has a powerful left hand. He’s most effective on his feet, but he can be a bit wild at times and has issues finding his range. A southpaw with a pro boxing background, Rodriguez has 8 career knockouts and has never been finished despite 2 losses. This will be Rodriguez’s eighth career fight in Nevada.
Rodriguez is the bigger fighter of the two with a 3-inch reach advantage, and he’s the busier striker with a higher accuracy percentage. However, Rodriguez still hasn’t fought in ages, and I have a hard time believing he goes from being a +180 underdog against Holland to a favorite here. This line is rather disrespectful toward Li, who was just a massive favorite to beat Ferguson. I’m not buying this line at all.
Give me Li and the plus money.