Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot
October 22, 2022 2:35 pm EDT
The Line: Mateusz Gamrot -190 / Beneil Dariush +165
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Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot fight Saturday in UFC 280 at the Etihad Arena. Dariush enters this fight with a 21-4-1 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by submission. Gamrot enters this fight with a 21-1 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by decision.
Dariush has won each of his last 7 fights and is coming off a May (2021) win over Tony Ferguson. Dariush is averaging 3.80 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Dariush is averaging 2.11 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Dariush is coming off a decision win at UFC 262 where he landed 76 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. Dariush is now 15-4-1 under the UFC banner, but he hasn’t fought in well over a year, mainly due to an ankle injury. Dariush is a black belt in BJJ and a black belt in Muay Thai, so he’s pretty much comfortable wherever the fight goes. At 33 years old, Dariush has a nasty submission game with 8 finishes. Dariush also has an impressive gas tank and has won all 8 of his career decisions. A decent standup and uses his legs very well, Dariush can leave himself open on his feet, and it’s led to him getting knocked out in 3 of his 4 carer losses. Dariush hasn’t lost a fight since UFC 222. This will be Dariush’s second career fight in the United Arab Emirates.
Gamrot has won 8 of his last 9 fights and is coming off a June win over Arman Tsarukyan. Gamrot is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Gamrot is averaging 4.83 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Gamrot is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 38 where he laded 108 total strikes and produced 6 takedowns. The bout earned fight of the night honors, the fourth time in his last 5 fights he’s earned a bonus. Gamrot comes from a submission wrestling background and is a black belt in BJJ. Gamrot doesn’t pack a punch on the feet and his technique can leave a lot to be desired, but he does enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Gamrot is a pressure style fighter and has good top control once on the ground. Great grappling and solid takedown defense, Gamrot still has another level he can reach as he approaches 32 years old. This will be Gamrot’s third career fight in the United Arab Emirates.
You can make a case for Dariush in the underdog role, given that he’s probably the more polished striker of the two and has pop behind those shots. However, Dariush hasn’t fought in quite some time, and I don’t have as much confidence in his ground game as I do Gamrot. It won’t be easy to get Dariush on the ground, but I’m confident Gamer can control the fight once in the clinch or on the canvas.
I’ll side with Gamrot in a decision to shave down this price.