Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev
December 10, 2022 11:50 pm EDT
The Line: Magomed Ankalaev -300 / Jan Blachowicz +250
(Get latest betting odds)
Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fight Saturday in UFC 282 at the T-Mobile Arena. Blachowicz enters this fight with a 29-9 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by decision. Ankalaev enters this fight with a 17-1 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by knockout.
Blachowicz has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a May win over Aleksandar Rakic. Blachowicz is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Blachowicz is averaging 1.08 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Blachowicz is coming off a knockout win at UFC on ESPN 36 where he landed 53 total strikes. Blachowicz has now produced knockouts in 4 of his last 6 victories, and he’s 10-3 dating back to 2017. A black belt in BJJ, Blachowicz is a scrappy Polish fighter who is willing to push the pace and trade on the feet. He can take a punch and keep coming forward, and he has decent defense on the feet despite his aggressive style. Blachowicz is also a solid takedown artist who has a strong ground and pound and 9 career submission victories. Blachowicz also has above average cardio that’s allowed him to be effective from start to finish and has helped him win 11 of his 16 career decisions. This will be Blachowicz’s fifth career fight in Nevada.
Ankalaev has won his last 9 fights and is coming off a July win over Anthony Smith. Ankalaev is averaging 3.64 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Ankalaev is averaging 0.94 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Ankalaev is coming off a knockout win at UFC 277 where he landed 64 total strikes. Ankalaev still hasn’t lost a fight since UFC Fight Night 127, and he’s 9-1 under the UFC banner overall. A tough Russian striker who can take a shot, Ankalaev has power in his hands that’s helped produced 10 knockouts, and he comes from a wrestling background. Ankalaev is quite an athlete who will mix in kicks and isn’t afraid to push the pace on the feet. Ankalaev has also proven to have above-average takedown defense through 10 UFC fights. Ankalaev has very good cardio for a man his size, and it’s helped him win all 8 of his career decisions. Despite his wrestling, Ankalaev has never produced a submission victory. This will be Ankalaev’s third career fight in Nevada.
Ankalaev usually controls his fights, and he’s the more accurate striker, so I can understand why he’s favored here. He’s the much younger, more athletic fighter of the two. However, Blachowicz is well established and not somebody you just walk through. Blachowicz will have his chances to win this fight, as he has legit knockout pop and he has well above average takedown accuracy.
Based on the line, I’m going to take a shot with the upset and side with Blachowicz.