MMA

UFC Fight Night 213: Tim Means vs Max Griffin Picks, Predictions, Odds

Max Griffin vs Tim Means
October 29, 2022 8:25 pm EDT
The Line: Tim Means +155 / Max Griffin -180
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Max Griffin and Tim Means fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 213 at the UFC Apex. Griffin enters this fight with a 18-9 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Means enters this fight with a 32-13-1 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout.

Griffin has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a March loss to Neil Magny. Griffin is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Griffin is averaging 1.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Griffin is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN 33 where he landed 75 total strikes and ate 104 total strikes. Griffin is now 6-7 under the UFC banner and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the third time in his career. Griffin is almost 37 years old, and he has black belts in Bok Fu and kickboxing. Griffin isn’t the most technically sound striker, but he has pop behind his shots and has 9 career knockouts. Griffin is a capable wrestler with 2 career submission victories, and he has above average takedown defense at 75 percent. Griffin has never been submitted in his career. This will be Griffin’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Means has won 5 of his last 8 fights and is coming off a June loss to Kevin Holland. Means is averaging 5.01 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Means is averaging 1.02 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Means is coming off a submission loss at UFC on ESPN 37 where he landed 25 total strikes and ate 53 total strikes. The loss snapped a 3-fight winning streak and Means has now been submitted 6 times in his career. Means looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2017-18. Means is an athletic fighter who comes from a boxing background and does his best work standing up, where he has a high work rate and solid defense. Means doesn’t take a lot of punishment on the feet and has only been knocked out twice in 13 career losses. Means has above-average takedown defense and has 5 career submission victories. Means has 19 career knockouts and has finished 24 of his 32 wins overall. This will be Means’ 10th career fight in Nevada. 

Griffin is probably the more talented fighter and has more balance to his attack with his ground game and ability to wrestle. However, we’re getting plus money with a polished and powerful striker in Means who doesn’t need much to tilt a fight in his favor. There’s a path for Means to win this fight if he keeps it on the feet.

I’ll side with the plus money.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Tim Means +155
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